Tuesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Apr 14, 2015 05:00AM ET
EUR/USD
Near-term price action comes under pressure again, after corrective attempts off yesterday’s fresh one-month low at 1.0519, stalled at 1.06 zone, where solid resistance has established. Renewed weakness shifts focus towards 1.0519 and psychological 1.05 support, with key target at 1.0461, 13 Mar low, seen in extension. Completion of 1.0461/1.1050 corrective phase, to extend bear-leg that commenced off 1.1034/50 double-top, with parity level being in short-term focus. Yesterday’s long-legged daily candle, suggests hesitation on approach to key supports, however, daily close in red and bearish setup of daily studies, keeps the downside under pressure. Hourly 20EMA offers initial resistance at 1.0565, also 4-hour Tenkan-sen line, ahead of strong 1.0600/15 zone, which is expected to cap. Extended corrective attempts should be ideally limited under former low at 1.0711, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.1034/1.0519 downleg.
Res: 1.0565; 1.0609; 1.0634; 1.0683
Sup: 1.0519; 1.0500; 1.0461; 1.0400
EUR/JPY
The pair accelerates lower after fully retracing 126.89/131.68 corrective phase and approaches initial target at 126. 00 round-figure support. Strong bearish tone dominates on daily studies and favors fresh acceleration lower. June 2013 trough at 124.94, marks next significant support, with further extension of downleg from 149.76, Dec 2014 peak, to look for 121.93, 50% retracement of larger 94.10/149.76 ascend. Near-term indicators are entering oversold territory, suggesting corrective action in the near-term. Former low at 126.89, marks initial resistance, ahead of lower top of 13 Apr at 127.81 and former consolidation range floor at 128.39, which is expected to cap stronger corrective rallies.
Res: 126.89; 127.43; 127.81; 128.39
Sup: 126.00; 125.50; 124.95; 124.50
GBP/USD
Cable trades in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.4563, as bears hesitate after completing 1.4633/1.5160 corrective phase. Yesterday’s positive close confirms the notion, as hourly technicals turned positive. However, overall tone remains bearish and sees limited upside action, before fresh push lower. Former congestion low at 1.4737, marks strong resistance, along with daily Tenkan-sen line / 10SMA at 1.4771, where extended rallies should be capped and only break here would sideline bears. The pair continues to focus short-term targets at 1.4371, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3501/1.7189 rally and 1.4344/1.4230, lows of June/May 2010.
Res: 1.4690; 1.4737; 1.4771; 1.4815
Sup: 1.4563; 1.4500; 1.4450; 1.4400
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USD/JPY
The pair loses traction and accelerates lower, following loss of pivotal 120 support, after yesterday’s bumpy ride that initially posted fresh high at 120.83 and subsequent dip to 119.70. Downside risk increases, as the price extends lower and violates important support at 119.63, 08 Apr trough / daily Ichimoku cloud top, also near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 118.70/120.83 upleg, with break here to confirm reversal. Bearish hourly studies and 4-hour indicators heading south and standing on the breakpoint, favor further easing. Daily close below 119.63 handle, to confirm bearish resumption. Otherwise, prolonged consolidation would precede fresh push lower. Former support at 120.00 and broken bull-trendline at 120.30, marks pivotal barriers.
Res: 120.00; 120.30; 120.42; 120.72
Sup: 119.61; 119.20; 118.90; 118.70
AUD/USD
The pair consolidates yesterday’s fall that dipped to 0.7551, confirming an end of corrective phase from 0.7531 low that was capped at 0.7736. Yesterday’s close in long red candle, confirms negative near-term stance, along with bearish technicals of lower timeframes. Upside attempts off 0.7551 low were so far capped at 0.7622, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.7736/0.7551 downleg, where rallies should be ideally capped. Otherwise, extended correction would focus 50% retracement at 0.7644 and more significant 0.7665, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level and lower top of 13 Apr, break of which to sideline attempts at key near-term support at 0.7531, 02 Apr fresh 6-year low.
Res: 0.7622; 0.7644; 0.7665; 0.7700
Sup: 0.7574; 0.7551; 0.7531; 0.7500
AUD/NZD
The cross remains directionless, trading in near-term consolidative phase below 1.0214, 07 Apr recovery high, with price action holding in narrow range, supported at 1.0143, just above Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0016/1.0214 corrective rally. Near-term studies are neutral/positive, keeping alive hopes of fresh attack at pivotal barriers at 1.0214 and 1.0220, peaks of 07/02 Apr and descending daily 20SMA, break of which is required to signal further recovery and expose next strong barrier at 1.0337, 26 Mar lower top. Prolonged consolidation is seen as favored near-term scenario, with increased downside risk expected in case of break below range floor, while extension below psychological 1.01 support, would bring near-term bears back to play. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and sees fresh attempts towards parity level, after completion of current corrective phase.
Res: 1.0200; 1.0214; 1.0227; 1.0254
Sup: 1.0143; 1.0093; 1.0080; 1.0050
XAU/USD
Spot gold lost traction after recovery attempts stalled at 1210, being capped by descending daily 55SMA and fresh acceleration lower broke through psychological 1200 support, reinforced by daily 10SMA. Renewed weakness that closed below 1200 handle, broke below former low and daily 20SMA at 1192. Bears have established on near-term studies and shift near-term risk towards the downside, with near-term focus at initial support at 1183, daily Kijun-sen line, ahead of key support at 1178, 31 Mar trough. Break and close below here to confirm reversal and trigger further retracement of 1142/1224 rally. Conversely, fresh strength and close above daily 10SMA, would sideline immediate downside risk and mark initial signal of higher low formation.
Res: 1196; 1200; 1206; 1210
Sup: 1189; 1183; 1178; 1173
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