Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Mar 11, 2015 05:12AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro trades in near-term consolidative phase around 1.07 handle, which was lost on yesterday’s extension to 1.0665. Tight Doji in Asian session confirms consolidation, with the upside being so far capped by hourly 20EMA. Overall bearish tone keeps the downside in focus, after yesterday’s bearish acceleration took out target at 1.0792, Sep 2003 low and nearly met the next one at 1.0660, Fibonacci 200% projection of the downleg from 1.1532. This opens way for further descend and shifts focus towards 1.0069, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of larger 0.8225/1.6039 rally and psychological 1.1000 support. However, generally oversold studies suggest corrective action in the near-term. Session high at 1.0715, offers initial resistance, ahead of strong 1.0800/21 resistance zone, round-figure barrier / former low of 09 Mar, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0905/1.0665 downleg, where extended rallies should be ideally capped. Conversely, break here and violation of pivotal 1.0905, lower top of 09 Mar, would signal stronger corrective action.
Res: 1.0715; 1.0757; 1.0800; 1.0821
Sup: 1.0665; 1.0600; 1.0550; 1.0500
EUR/JPY
The pair remains under strong pressure and eventually broke below psychological 130 support. Yesterday’s long red candle and close below 130, signals resumption of corrective pullback from 149.76, Dec 2014 high. Near-term focus shifts towards next targets at 128.50, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 94.10/149.76 rally and 127.96 Nov 2013 low. Studies of larger timeframes maintain bearish tone and favor further downside, with widening 20d Bollingers band, supporting the notion. Initial barriers lay at 130.00/13, while past two day peaks at 131.80 mark the first breakpoint.
Res: 129.72; 130.00; 130.13; 130.50
Sup: 129.00; 128.50; 127.96; 127.50
GBP/USD
Cable remains in extended near-term corrective mode off fresh low at 1.5027, with the upside capped by descending hourly 20EMA. Neutral tone prevails on near-term studies and sees scope for further hesitation ahead of psychological 1.5000 support and 1.4950, 2015 low. However, overall tone remains negative and keeps focus at the downside. Bearish setup of daily SMA’s and Ichimoku studies, favors further weakness. Initial resistance lies at 1.5100, ahead of correction high at 1.5135, break of which to signal further corrective action and open strong 1.5177/84 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5268/1.5030 downleg daily Ichimoku cloud base, where extended rallies should be ideally capped.
Res: 1.5100; 1.5135; 1.5177; 1.5184
Sup: 1.5048; 1.5027; 1.5000; 1.4950
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USD/JPY
The pair enters near-term corrective phase, after rallies cracked psychological 122 barrier and subsequent pullback that left Doji candle with long upper shadow, confirms strong resistance zone at 121.83/122. South-heading near-term indicators suggest further correction, as yesterday’s pullback cracked psychological 121 support, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 119.36/122.01 rally, before fresh attempts higher, as overall bulls remain intact. Repeated attempts below 121 handle, should be ideally contained at 120.60 higher base.
Res: 121.49; 121.83; 122.00; 122.50
Sup: 121.00; 120.84; 120.60; 120.37
AUD/USD
The pair maintains bearish tone and probes below 0.7600, round-figure support, after yesterday’s close below 0.7624, former low of 03 Feb, marked full retracement of 0.7924/0.7911 corrective phase. Yesterday’s long red candle confirms bearish stance for resumption of larger downtrend, as the way is opened towards next target at 0.7204, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. Former lows at 0.7624/42, mark
immediate resistances, ahead of yesterday’s high at 0.7705, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7911/0.7586 downleg and former base at 0.7740 zone.
Res: 0.7624; 0.7642; 0.7705; 0.7740
Sup: 0.7586; 0.7550; 0.7500; 0.7450
AUD/NZD
The cross maintains positive near-term tone, as extended recovery rally from fresh low at 1.0279, cracked psychological 1.05 barrier, after pivotal 1.0475 barrier, former tops of 24/25 Feb and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0792/1.0279 descend, was taken out. Longer upper shadow of yesterday’s candle, however, suggests further consolidation, but positive tone persists and keeps next targets at 1.0535/1.0600, 50% / 61.8% retracement of 1.0792/1.0279 descend, in near-term focus. Immediate support lies at 1.0450, hourly consolidation range floor, ahead of psychological 1.04 level and pivotal 1.0380/70, 05 Mar trough / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0279/1.0517 rally, loss of which to put near-term bulls on hold.
Res: 1.0517; 1.0535; 1.0596; 1.0631
Sup: 1.0470; 1.0450; 1.0426; 1.0400
XAU/USD
Spot Gold remains in strong downtrend and posted new low at 1155, after meeting initial target at 1157, Fibonacci 200% projection. Near-term price action moves in consolidative mode, with the upside being capped at 1170, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1197/1155 downleg. Firm bearish tone keeps focus at the downside, with extension through 1155 and psychological 1150 support, expected to open 1142/1137, 01 Dec 2014 low / Fibonacci 261.8% projection of the downleg from 1223, ahead of key med-term support at 1131, low of 07 Nov 2014. Daily studies are oversold and suggest corrective action before final push towards 1131 target. Today’s close above 1170, would be initial signal of correction.
Res: 1170; 1175; 1181; 1187
Sup: 1161; 1158; 1155; 1145
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