Friday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Apr 10, 2015 04:36AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro remains under pressure and establishes under 1.07 handle, following yesterday’s acceleration that ended day in long red candle and closed below former trough at 1.0711, posted on 31 Mar. Confirmation of double-top at 1.1050/34, opens way for further acceleration lower. Next target lies at 1.0600, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.0461/1.1050, with break here to expose key short-term support at 1.0461, low of 13 Mar, for full retracement of 1.0461/1.1050 corrective rally. Interim supports en-route, lay at 1.0588 and 1.0512, Fibonacci 138.2% and 161.8% projection of the downleg from 1.1034. Bearish setup remains on all timeframes and supports further downside, with oversold conditions of near-term studies, to interrupt descend with corrective rallies. Immediate resistance lies at former higher base at 1.0711, ahead of 1.08, previous low of 07 Apr, reinforced by daily 10/20SMA’s bear-cross under formation, where extended rallies should be capped.
Res: 1.0683; 1.0711; 1.0777; 1.0800
Sup: 1.0636; 1.0600; 1.0588; 1.0512
EUR/JPY
The pair remains under pressure and continues to move lower. Yesterday’s repeated close in red and eventual break below pivotal 128.39 higher low, posted on 01 Apr, signals further downside, as weakness confirms double top at 131.50/28. Bears are fully in play on all timeframes and see scope for final push towards key short-term support at 126.89, low of 13 Mar, to complete 126.89/131.68 corrective phase and signal resumption of larger downtrend. Daily 10/20SMA’s bear cross at 129.60, should ideally cap corrective attempts.
Res: 128.60; 129.00; 129.60; 129.88
Sup: 128.02; 127.65; 127.30; 127.00
GBP/USD
Near-term bears came fully in play, as fresh acceleration lower, following repeated rejection under pivotal 1.50 barrier, eventually broke below 1.4737, 01 Apr low and near-term range floor. Confirmation of an end of near-term sideways-trading phase, signals fresh weakness that looks for extension to key short-term support at 1.4633, low of 18 Mar, to confirm completion of short-term corrective phase and resumption of larger downtrend. Yesterday’s close in long red candle, confirms bearish stance, as the pair is poised for strong weekly negative close that supports the notion. Setup of near-term studies remains negative, along with overall bearish picture. Former range base at 1.4737, marks initial resistance, ahead of 1.48 zone, broken bull-trendline, reinforced by descending daily 10SMA, expected to cap extended rallies.
Res: 1.4700; 1.4737; 1.4800; 1.4834
Sup: 1.4682; 1.4633; 1.4600; 1.4550
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USD/JPY
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and holds firm above psychological 120 support, with fresh high being posted at 120.72, on yesterday’s acceleration higher. The pair focuses immediate targets at 120.98, Fibonacci 138.2% projection of the upleg from 118.70, ahead of lower top at 121.19 and 121.36, Fibonacci 161.8% projection, regain of which to open way for retest of key 122.01 barrier, peak of 10 Mar. Daily indicators are breaking into positive territory and support further rallies. Corrective actions should be ideally contained at 120.00 support, reinforced by daily 20SMA.
Res: 120.72; 120.98; 121.36; 121.50
Sup: 120.26; 120.00; 119.84; 119.63
AUD/USD
The pair consolidates around 0.77 handle, after eventually cracking important 0.7734 barrier, 50% retracement of 0.7936/0.7531 downleg / daily Kijun-sen line. Near-term studies remain positively aligned and signal further upside attempts, however, caution is required, as yesterday’s trading ended in Doji and again closed below daily 20SMA. This could be a signal of recovery rally stall, which could confirm the notion, in case of fresh easing and close below 0.7635, daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line, as overall picture remains bearish. Otherwise, fresh attempts higher and close above 0.7734, to confirm near-term bulls and trigger further recovery towards next strong barrier at 0.7782, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily Ichimoku cloud base.
Res: 0.7700; 0.7720; 0.7736; 0.7782
Sup: 0.7658; 0.7635; 0.7593; 0.7575
AUD/NZD
The cross remains in near-term consolidative phase below 1.0214, 07 Apr recovery high, with price action holding in narrow range, supported at 1.0143, just above Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0016/1.0214 corrective rally. Near-term studies remain positively aligned, keeping hopes of fresh attack at pivotal barriers at 1.0214 and 1.0220, peaks of 07/02 Apr and descending daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0227, break of which is required to signal further recovery and expose next strong barrier at 1.0337, 26 Mar lower top. Prolonged consolidation is seen as favored near-term scenario, with increased downside risk expected in case of break below range floor, while extension below psychological 1.01 support, would bring near-term bears back to play. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and sees fresh attempts towards parity level, after completion of current corrective phase.
Res: 1.0200; 1.0214; 1.0227; 1.0254
Sup: 1.0143; 1.0093; 1.0080; 1.0050
XAU/USD
Spot gold closed in red for the third consecutive day and lost pivotal 1200 handle, also trendline support that confirms reversal. Fresh low was posted at 1192, where near-term basing attempt is under way. This could signal consolidative phase, before fresh leg lower, as near-term studies are negative. Further weakness to expose key supports at 1187, ascending daily 20SMA and 1178, trough of 31 Mar, with break here to confirm top at 1224 and trigger further easing. Alternatively, holding above daily 20SMA would keep alive hopes of fresh attempts higher, as daily indicators are still above their midlines.
Res: 1197; 1202; 1207; 1212
Sup: 1192; 1187; 1183; 1178
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