Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
FinFX | Mar 10, 2015 05:06AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro came under pressure and accelerated below 1.08 handle, after yesterday’s consolidation was capped by descending 4-hour 10EMA at 1.09 zone. Bears took full control and looking for initial target at 1.0762, Sep 2003 low, with extended weakness expected to open 1.0660, Fibonacci 200% projection of the downleg from 1.1532, 03 Feb lower top and 1.0069, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of larger 0.8225/1.6039 ascend, expected to come in focus. Bears continue to drive the price lower, despite oversold conditions of all timeframes, with widening daily 20d Bollingers, supporting the notion. Previous low at 1.0821 offers immediate resistance, ahead of hourly lower platform at 1.0860 and yesterday’s consolidation top at 1.0905, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.1112/1.0783 downleg, expected to ideally cap corrective attempts. Only close above here would delay bears and signal stronger correction.
Res: 1.0821; 1.0860; 1.0905; 0.0947
Sup: 1.0783; 1.0762; 1.0700; 1.0660
EUR/JPY
The pair consolidates above yesterday’s fresh low at 130.69, with return above 131 handle, signaling prolonged near-term consolidative action, before final push towards key short-term support at 130.13, 26 Jan low. Overall tone remains firmly bearish and keeps the downside favored, with violation of 130 support, expected to trigger fresh extension of corrective pullback from 149.76, peak of Dec 2014 and expose 128.50, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger rally from 94.10, 2012 low, to 149.76 peak. However, improved hourly studies and 4-hour indicators starting to point higher, suggest corrective rallies towards 132.10 zone, former hourly base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 134.58/130.69 downleg, with 133 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, expected to cap extended rallies.
Res: 131.85; 132.20; 132.63; 133.00
Sup: 131.35; 131.00; 130.69; 130.13
GBP/USD
Cable trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh low at 1.5030, with rally being capped by descending hourly 20EMA at 1.5135, for now. Further hesitation ahead of key supports at 1.5000, psychological support and 1.4950, 2015 low, could be expected in the near-term. However, bearish tone continues to prevail on all timeframes and keeps focus at the downside. Bearish setup of daily SMA’s and Ichimoku studies, favors further weakness, along with near-term indicators holding in the negative territory. Psychological 1.51 barrier, offers initial resistance, ahead of correction high at 1.5135, break of which to signal extended correction and open strong 1.5177/84 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5268/1.5030 downleg daily Ichimoku cloud base, where extended rallies should be capped to keep bears intact.
Res: 1.5100; 1.5135; 1.5177; 1.5184
Sup: 1.5068; 1.5030; 1.5000; 1.4950
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USD/JPY
The pair maintains strong bullish tone, with yesterday’s rally from 120.60 higher base and close above 121 barrier. Today’s fresh strength eventually took out key short-term barrier at 121.83, 08 Dec 2014 high and probed above psychological 122 barrier. Sustained break and daily close above 121.83 is required to confirm an end of three-month corrective phase and trigger resumption of larger uptrend from 2011 low at 75.55, towards next target at 124.14, June 2007 high. Yesterday’s high at 121.40 offers initial support, ahead of 121.10 trough, with stronger corrective dips to be ideally contained above 120.60 higher base and near 50% of 119.36/122.01 upleg.
Res: 122.00; 122.50; 123.00; 123.50
Sup: 121.40; 121.10; 120.60; 120.37
AUD/USD
The pair remains under pressure and accelerated lower today, after yesterday’s consolidative trading ended in a Doji shape. Fresh weakness came ticks away from key short-term support at 0.7624, 03 Feb post-RBA spike low, with final break here to confirm an end of short-term corrective phase and signal resumption of larger downtrend from 2011 peak at 1.1079, towards next target at 0.7204, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. Setup of daily technicals remains firmly bearish, while oversold near-term studies may signal prolonged hesitation, before eventual break lower. Session high at 0.7705, offers initial resistance, ahead of 0.7738, yesterday’s corrective top and 50% of 0.7843/0.7630 downleg and only close above here would sideline attacks at pivotal 0.7624 support.
Res: 0.7682; 0.7705; 0.7738; 0.7762
Sup: 0.7630; 0.7624; 0.7600; 0.7550
AUD/NZD
The cross maintains positive near-term tone, as extended recovery rally from fresh low at 1.0279, broke and close above pivotal 1.0475 barrier, former lower tops of 24/25 Feb and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0792/1.0279 descend, with today’s fresh acceleration higher, probing above psychological 1.05 barrier, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line. Continues positive closes of past few sessions, suggest further recovery. Immediate target lies at 1.0535, 50% retracement of 1.0792/1.0279 descend, ahead of psychological 1.06 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
Positive setup of daily SMA’s and daily indicators heading north, supports further rallies which are expected to commence after completion of near-term narrow-range consolidation. Immediate support lies at 1.0450, consolidation range floor, ahead of psychological 1.04 level and pivotal 1.0380/70, 05 Mar trough / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0279/1.0517 rally, loss of which would sideline immediate bulls.
Res: 1.0517; 1.0535; 1.0596; 1.0631
Sup: 1.0450; 1.0426; 1.0400; 1.0380
XAU/USD
Spot Gold continues its strong downtrend, which was interrupted by yesterday’s 1163/1175 consolidative phase, with today’s fresh weakness below former 1163 low, heading towards initial target at 1157, 200% Fibonacci projection of the downleg from 1223, 02 Mar high. Further bearish acceleration and break through psychological 1150 support, to open 1142/37, 01 Dec 2014 low / Fibonacci 261.8% projection, ahead of key med-term support at 1131, low of 07 Nov 2014. Bears remain firmly in play on all timeframes, however, oversold conditions warn of consolidative/corrective action in the near-term. Immediate resistance lies at 1163, previous low, ahead of 1175, consolidation top and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1197/1159 descend and only close above here would sideline immediate bears for stronger corrective action.
Res: 1203; 1209; 1211; 1215
Sup: 1163; 1157; 1150; 1145
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