Thursday's Outlook: EUR/JPY Under Pressure, AUD/USD Holds Positive Tone
FinFX | Apr 09, 2015 03:57AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro accelerated lower after recovery attempts stalled at 1.0886 yesterday, with extension below trendline support at 1.0820 and previous low of 07 Apr at 1.0800, reinforced by daily 20SMA, confirming hourly double top at 1.0883/86. Fresh weakness marked the third consecutive close in red, as extension of pullback from 1.1034, 06 Apr lower top, is looking for full retracement of the upleg from 1.0711 to 1.1034. Break below the latter to confirm double top of the larger picture at 1.1050/34 and trigger further retracement of 1.0461/1.1050 recovery rally. Near-term indicators are establishing in the negative territory and favor further weakness, as overall tone remains negative and requires close below 1.0711, to confirm an end of near-term consolidative phase between 1.0711 and 1.1050 and signal bearish resumption. Former supports at 1.0800/20, now act as initial resistances, while only break above 1.0871/86, 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top / yesterday’s high, would neutralize near-term bears.
Res: 1.0800; 1.0820; 1.0833; 1.0886
Sup: 1.0750; 1.0711; 1.0686; 1.0612
EUR/JPY
The pair remains under pressure and extends near-term reversal from 131.28, 06 Apr high. Yesterday’s repeated close in red and below daily 20SMA, confirms negative near-term stance for further easing, as the price so far dipped below Fibonacci 61.8% of 128.39/131.28 upleg. Bearish daily studies maintain risk of eventual retest of 128.39, 01 Apr low, also the floor of near-term range, with break here to confirm double-top at 131.50/28 and trigger further weakness. Conversely, fresh strength and daily close above 130 handle, to sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 129.75; 130.34; 130.78; 131.03
Sup: 129.31; 129.07; 128.59; 128.39
GBP/USD
Cable continues to trade within larger range, following yesterday’s repeated upside rejection that keeps pivotal barrier and range top at 1.50 zone, intact for now. Near-term technicals returned into neutral mode, suggesting further sideways trading. Daily 20SMA, currently at 1.4844, holds today’s action, guarding bull-trendline off 1.4633 low, currently at 1.4800. Break here would weaken near-term structure for attack at pivotal support at 1.4737, 01 Apr low and floor of near-term range. Larger picture’s studies remain bearish and keep the downside vulnerable. Only sustained break above 1.50 breakpoint, would signal fresh recovery.
Res: 1.4884; 1.4918; 1.4980; 1.5000
Sup: 1.4844; 1.4798; 1.4737; 1.4700
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USD/JPY
The pair regained levels above 120 handle, after yesterday’s pullback from 120.43, 07 Apr high, was contained at 119.63, where higher low was formed. Fresh acceleration turned near-term focus higher again, for eventual break above pivotal 120.35/43 congestion tops and resumption of recovery rally from 118.70, low of 03 Apr. Near-term studies regained positive tone and favor further upside, however, caution is required, as yesterday’s close was in red and neutral tone of daily technicals, would signal further hesitation and pivotal resistance zone. Daily 20SMA reinforces initial support at 120, with daily close above here required to confirm bullish stance.
Res: 120.36; 120.43; 120.80; 121.00
Sup: 120.00; 119.79; 119.63; 119.33
AUD/USD
Near-term technicals hold positive tone, after the price action eventually cracked 0.77 barrier and spiked to 0.7726, short of pivotal 0.7734 barrier, 50% retracement of 0.7936/0.7531 downleg / daily Kijun-sen line. Subsequent pullback found footstep at 0.7658, but repeated close below daily 20SMA at 0.7694, still signals hesitation for clear break above here and 0.7734 barrier, to confirm recovery resumption. However, overall negative structure sees limited upside action, before bears regain control and turn near-term focus towards the downside targets.
Res: 0.7700; 0.7726; 0.7734; 0.7782
Sup: 0.7658; 0.7626; 0.7593; 0.7575
AUD/NZD
The cross entered near-term consolidative phase below 1.0214, 07 Apr recovery high, with price action entrenched within narrow range and downside contained at 1.0143, just above Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0016/1.0214 corrective rally. As positive tone persists on near-term studies, the pair keeps focus at pivotal barriers at 1.0214 and 1.0254, peaks of 07/01 Apr and descending daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0239, break of which is required to signal further recovery and expose next strong barrier at 1.0337, 26 Mar lower top. Prolonged consolidation is seen as favored near-term scenario, with increased downside risk expected in case of break below range floor, while extension below psychological 1.01 support, would bring near-term bears back to play. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and sees fresh attempts towards parity level, after completion of current corrective phase.
Res: 1.0200; 1.0214; 1.0239; 1.0254
Sup: 1.0143; 1.0093; 1.0080; 1.0050
XAU/USD
Spot gold remains in near-term descend from 1224, high of 06 Apr, where Shooting Star reversal pattern was formed. The price probes below pivotal 1200 support, reinforced by daily 10SMA, on today’s renewed weakness. Daily close below 1200 handle to confirm near-term bears and look for further reversal, as fresh weakness probes below 1193, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1142/1224 recovery rally. Bears are establishing on near-term technicals and keep focus at lower targets and next breakpoints at 1185, daily 20SMA and 1178, 31 Mar higher. Final break below these supports to confirm bears fully in play for further retracement of 1142/1224 rally. Otherwise, hopes of higher low formation and fresh attempts higher would remain in play, while daily 20SMA holds.
Res: 1200; 1203; 1207; 1212
Sup: 1194; 1190; 1185; 1178
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