Tuesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Apr 07, 2015 04:51AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro accelerated lower after posting marginally higher high at 1.1034 yesterday, but keeps key 1.1050 barrier intact for now. Fresh easing touched the upper boundary of pivotal support zone at 1.0900/1.0880, marked by Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0711/1.1050 upleg and daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line. Setup of near-term studies shows neutral mode and suggests consolidation between 1.0880 and 1.0975, before establishing fresh direction. Positively aligned daily studies favor fresh attempts higher and eventual attack at 1.1050 peak, despite yesterday’s close in red. Daily close above 1.10 barrier, is needed to confirm scenario. Alternatively, violation of 1.0900/1.0880 support zone to confirm full retracement of Friday’s post-data rally and signal further easing towards 1.0825, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0461/1.1050 rally and daily 20SMA at 1.0786, in extension.
Res: 1.0953; 1.0975; 1.1000; 1.1034
Sup: 1.0900; 1.0880; 1.0861; 1.0825
EUR/JPY
The pair holds positive near-term tone and consolidates under yesterday’s fresh high at 131.28, keeping key near-term barriers at 131.50/68, peaks of 24/18 Mar, in near-term focus. Consolidation is so far contained at 130.40, keeping intact psychological 130 support, also higher base of 03 Apr, reinforced by daily 10SMA. Consolidative phase is expected to precede eventual attack at 131.50/68 high, break of which to signal resumption of recovery rally from 126.89. Only close below 130 handle would sideline upside attempts and signal prolonged consolidation, which is required to hold above 129.50, sideways-moving daily 20SMA.
Res: 131.28; 131.50; 131.68; 132.00
Sup: 130.40; 130.00; 129.83; 129.50
GBP/USD
Cable corrects yesterday’s rallies that approached pivotal 1.50 barrier, with fresh easing finding temporary support at 1.4867, daily Tenkan-sen line / near 61.8% retracement of the upleg from 1.4808, last Friday’s pre-data higher low, to 1.4979, yesterday’s fresh recovery high. The support is reinforced by formation of daily 10/20SMA’s bull-cross at 1.4854, which is required to contain, for fresh attempts higher. Near-term studies hold overall positive tone and keep the upside in focus, with consolidative phase seen preceding fresh attack at 1.50 congestion tops, reinforced by descending daily Kijun-sen line. Otherwise, fresh easing and close below daily 20SMA, to signal further correction of 1.4737/1.4979 upleg, with loss of 1.48 handle, 03 Apr higher low, to bring bears fully in play.
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Res: 1.4942; 1.4979; 1.5000; 1.5030
Sup: 1.4867; 1.4854; 1.4808; 1.4774
USD/JPY
Yesterday’s bounce from near-term base at 118.70 zone, reinforced by daily Ichimoku cloud top and close in long green candle, avert immediate downside risk, with near-term price action consolidating around fresh recovery highs at 119.50 zone, where 4-hour Ichimoku cloud base caps rallies for now. Mixed near-term technicals and sideways-moving Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen line, suggest consolidation, before resumption of recovery rally. Regain of last Friday’s high at 119.89, is seen as minimum requirement for further recovery, with close above daily 20 SMA at 120.11, to confirm and open pivotal 120.35 barrier. On the downside, daily Tenkan-sen contains today’s action t 119.33, while further easing and close below 119 handle , Fibonacci 61.8% of 118.70/119.66 upleg, to confirm bears back in play for retest of 118.70 base.
Res: 119.66; 119.89; 120.11; 120.35
Sup: 119.33; 119.07; 118.90; 118.70
AUD/USD
The pair rallied today and left higher low at 0.7575, averting downside risk, initially signaled by yesterday’s close in red. Fresh rally cracked psychological 0.77 barrier, reinforced by daily 20SMA, with daily close above here, to confirm recovery and signal further retracement of 0.7936/0.7531 downleg. Improved near-term studies are supportive for further attempts higher, with initial targets laying at 0.7734, daily Kijun-sen line and 0.7782, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7936/0.7531. Corrective actions off fresh high at 0.7709, should be contained above 0.7640, mid-point of recovery rally, to keep fresh bulls in play. However, larger picture’s studies remain bearish and see fresh attempts lower on completion of near-term corrective phase.
Res: 0.7709; 0.7734; 0.7782; 0.7841
Sup: 0.7660; 0.7640; 0.7626; 0.7593
AUD/NZD
The cross bounces from fresh low at 1.0016, signaling hesitation ahead of key parity level. Corrective rally that took out initial 1.0155 resistance and probed above psychological 1.02 barrier, eases immediate downside pressure. Hourly studies regained bullish tone and favor further upside action, with pivotal lower top of 01 Apr at 1.0255, coming in near-term focus. Rallies should be ideally capped here, to keep overall strong bearish picture intact, however, break higher and close above 1.0255/66, 01Apr lower top / daily 20SMA, would sideline immediate bears and allow for stronger correction. Next pivotal barrier lies at 1.0337, 26 Mar lower top, near 61.8% retracement of 1.0526/1.0016 descend.
Res: 1.0214; 1.0271; 1.0300; 1.0337
Sup: 1.0140; 1.0080; 1.0050; 1.0016
XAU/USD
Spot gold consolidates under yesterday’s fresh recovery high at 1224, as the rally fully reversed 1223/1142 downleg and hit the mid-point of larger 1307/1142 downleg. Near-term technicals maintain bullish tone and favor fresh attempts higher, with daily indicators breaking into positive territory and supporting the notion. Corrective action was so far contained at 1210, with further easing expected to ideally find ground above psychological 1200 support, to maintain bullish structure. Fresh attempts higher and break above 1224 high, to expose daily cloud base at 1229, ahead of 1234, daily 200SMA. Only break below 1200 handle, reinforced by rising daily 10SMA, would delay bulls.
Res: 1216; 1219; 1224; 1229
Sup: 1210; 1206; 1200; 1194
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