Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
FinFX | Mar 05, 2015 04:43AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro holds firm bearish tone and heads towards psychological 1.10 support, ahead of today’s ECB meeting. Yesterday’s close in long red candle and eventual completion of 1.1096/1.1532 corrective phase, opens way for further extension of large bear-leg from 1.3992, 2014 high. Bearish setup of technicals on all timeframes, supports the notion. Hesitation on approach to 1.10 target could be anticipated as near-term studies are oversold. Corrective rallies to face initial resistance at session high at 1.1083, ahead of 1.1155, 02/03 Mar consolidation floor and key resistance zone at 1.1243/60, lower platform / mid-Feb congestion bottom and only break here would sideline bears.
Res: 1.1083; 1.1155; 1.1200; 1.1243
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0929; 1.0900; 1.0826
EUR/JPY
The pair remains at the back foot in the near-term and attempts at the lower boundary of bear-channel from 136.68 high, following bearish acceleration that left long red candle yesterday. Fresh weakness closed below Fibonacci 61.8% of 130.13/136.68 rally, signaling an end of short-term corrective phase. Today’s extension to 132.13, low of 02 Feb and the last obstacle on the way towards key short-term support at 130.13, 26 Jan low, moves the latter in near-term focus. Bearish tone prevails on all timeframes and widening 20d Bollinger bands suggest further downside. Descend may be interrupted by corrective action on oversold near-term studies. Asian high at 132.72, offers initial resistance, ahead of former lows at 133.40/50 and pivotal lower top of 02 Mar at 134.58.
Res: 132.72; 133.50; 133.97; 134.58
Sup: 132.00; 131.68; 131.13; 130.90
GBP/USD
Cable remains in strong downtrend, which accelerated yesterday and closed below daily Kijun-sen line at 1.5269, to end day in long red candle. Today’s resumption of descend focuses strong supports at 1.5184/80, daily Ichimoku cloud base / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.4950/1.5551 ascend. Close below here is required to turn daily technicals into bearish mode and signal an end of corrective phase from 1.4950. Widening 20d Bollinger Bands support the notion, with reversing daily 20SMA, offering good resistance at 1.5355. Overextended near-term studies suggest corrective action in the near-term
Res: 1.5269; 1.5315; 1.5345; 1.5400
Sup: 1.5200; 1.5180; 1.5137; 1.5091
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USD/JPY
The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode after finding support at 119.40. Positively aligned near-term studies keep the upside favored, however, initial barriers at 119.90/120.00, remain intact for now. Clear break here is needed to open targets at 120.25/46 and 120.80 lower platform in extension. Setup of daily indicators is also positive, with 119.40 support, reinforced by ascending daily 10SMA, marking the first breakpoint, loss of which to open further easing towards pivotal 118.66 and 118.25, daily higher bases.
Res: 119.90; 120.25; 120.46; 120.80
Sup: 119.61; 119.40; 119.27; 119.00
AUD/USD
The pair remains entrenched within consolidative range, after fresh upside attempts were short-lived and left marginally higher high at 0.7858 and yesterday’s trade ended in Doji candle. Consolidation is supported by neutral near-term studies and contracted daily 20d Bollingers. Break of initial upside barrier at 0.7858 is required to open key short-term resistance and larger range top at 0.7911. Conversely, weakness below initial 0.78 support, would accelerate towards pivotal higher base at 0.7740 zone and shift focus towards range’s lower boundaries.
Res: 0.7842; 0.7858; 0.7874; 0.7911
Sup: 0.7800; 0.7750; 0.7738; 0.7700
AUD/NZD
The cross remains under pressure after yesterday’s fresh weakness cracked historic low at 1.0285, on extension to 1.0279. Overall tone is bearish and sees scope for bearish resumption into uncharted zone. However, near-term hesitation could be expected, as today’s bounce fully recovered yesterday’s losses and looks for test of pivotal 1.0386 lower top of 03 Mar. Break here and regain of 1.04 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0472/1.0279 / daily 20SMA, is required to sideline immediate downside threats and shift focus towards break point at 1.0475, lower top of 25 Feb and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0792/1.0279 descend.
Res: 1.0386; 1.0400; 1.0426; 1.0472
Sup: 1.0358; 1.0335; 1.0320; 1.0279
XAU/USD
Spot Gold continues to trade around 1200 handle, where yesterday’s trade was closed, keeping the level as valid support, despite brief probes lower. However, setup of near-term studies is bearish and keeps the downside in focus. Also, negatively aligned daily technicals, support the notion. Clear break lower to face initial support at 1195, 03 Mar low, ahead of 1190, 23/24 Feb new lows and 1170 higher base, expected to come in focus on bearish acceleration. On the upside, daily Tenkan-sen at 1206, offers immediate barrier that capped today’s trading, ahead of 1214, daily 20/100SMA’s bear cross, regain of which is required to ease immediate downside pressure are shift focus towards key near-term barrier at 1224, 02 Mar correction high and daily Ichimoku cloud base.
Res: 1206; 1209; 1214; 1220
Sup: 1198; 1195; 1190; 1186
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