Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Mar 03, 2015 04:59AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro trades in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.1158, confirmed by repeated Doji. The upside remains capped at 1.1243, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1378/1.1158 downleg, as barrier was re-confirmed on yesterday’s rally rejection and subsequent easing. Hourly studies are neutral, while negative setup of larger picture’s technicals maintains overall bearish structure. Key short-term support at 1.1096, 2015 low, is in near-term focus, with break here, expected to open psychological 1.1000 support for test. Descending 4-hour chart 20EMA, reinforces initial barrier, while daily 20SMA, currently at 1.1330, marks the next breakpoint, above which to re-focus the upper boundaries of short-term 1.1096/1.1532 range.
Res: 1.1226; 1.1243; 1.1270; 1.1300
Sup: 1.1158; 1.1096; 1.1050; 1.1000
EUR/JPY
Near-term tone remains weak, as yesterday’s rally was capped below daily 10/20SMA’s bear-cross and daily Tenkan-sen line. The upside attempts are seen limited while the latter barriers cap, with negatively aligned near-term studies and overall bearish picture, keeping the downside vulnerable. Violation of fresh low at 133.50, also 50% of 130.13/136.68 upleg, to confirm negative stance and shift focus towards key support at 130.13, low of 26 Jan. Conversely, close above 134.70/80, MA’s / Tenkan-sen barriers, would improve near-tem structure signal further recovery.
Res: 134.58; 134.68; 134.80; 135.00
Sup: 133.86; 133.42; 133.00; 132.63
GBP/USD
Cable remains at the back foot, following yesterday’s fresh easing and daily close in red. Extension lower was so far contained by ascending daily 20SMA at 1.5350, with near-term consolidation under way. Near-term studies are bearish, favoring further easing that requires close below daily 20SMA, to open pivotal support zone at 1.5220, higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4950/1.5551 rally, violation of which is required to neutralize daily bulls and open way for further easing towards 1.5269, daily Kijun-sen line and daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.52. Conversely, close above sideways-moving daily 10SMA, currently at 1.5424, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5551/1.5350, is required to sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 1.5400; 1.5424; 1.5457; 1.5475
Sup: 1.5350; 1.5320; 1.5300; 1.5269
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USD/JPY
The pair reverses from fresh high at 120.25, following yesterday’s close above psychological 120 barrier. Immediate attacks at pivotal 120.46 barrier are on hold, as fresh easing cracked trough at 119.65, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 118.66 / 120.25 upleg. However, pivotal support at 119.40 is intact for now and reversal above here is seen as ideal scenario for fresh attempts higher. Bullish setup of daily studies keeps the upside focused and only close below 119.00, daily 20SMA, would neutralize bulls and risk fresh weakness towards pivotal support at 119.25 higher base / Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 rally.
Res: 119.95; 120.25; 120.46; 120.80
Sup: 119.40; 119.27; 119.00; 118.66
AUD/USD
The pair bounces from session lows at 0.7749, after RBA’s surprising no change decision, re-confirming strong support at 0.7740 zone and sidelining immediate downside risk. Regain of levels above 0.78 handle and sustained break above 0.7832 lower top, is required to confirm near-term recovery and shift focus towards the upside barriers at 0.7874, 06 Feb former high and pivotal 0.7911, 26 Feb correction high.
Res: 0.7806; 0.7832; 0.7853; 0.7875
Sup: 0.7818; 0.7792; 0.7775; 0.7740
AUD/NZD
The pair rallied near 1.04 barrier after unchanged RBA, sidelining immediate downside risk of retesting key 1.0296 support. Yesterday’s Doji signaled hesitation on a approach to the pivotal support, with subsequent bounce expected to further delay bears, in favor of corrective action. However, overall bearish tone remains intact, as the price holds below descending daily20SMA, currently at 1.0417. Extension and close above here is required to confirm initial recovery signals and expose pivotal barrier and lower tops of 24/25 Feb at 1.0472.
Res: 1.0400; 1.0417; 1.0472; 1.0500
Sup: 1.0320; 1.0307; 1.0296; 1.0285
XAU/USD
Spot Gold’s upside attempts failed under 1224, daily cloud base, as descending daily 20SMA capped the rally. Subsequent easing that left red candle with long upper shadow yesterday, signals strong selling interest and likely end of corrective phase from 1190 lows. Fresh attempts below psychological 1200 support, confirm the notion, with daily close below here, required to open initial support at 1190 and 1170 higher base, in extension. Overall bearish setup remains intact, while near-term technicals returned to the negative territory. Only rally and close above 1224 barrier would neutralize increasing downside risk.
Res: 1212; 1216; 1220; 1224
Sup: 1204; 1200; 1195; 1190
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