Thursday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
FinFX | Apr 02, 2015 04:08AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro completes near-term consolidative phase and signals stronger recovery on break above initial 1.08 barrier and regain of 1.0841, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.1055/1.0711 downleg. Hourly studies are breaking above neutrality zone that signals higher base formation at 1.0711, for possible stronger corrective action. However, setup of technicals on larger timeframes remains bearish and keeps the downside vulnerable, with extended rallies expected to hold below 1.0920, daily Kijun-sen line / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1050/1.0711 downleg, before bears re-assert. Fresh attempts lower and loss of near-term base at 1.0715, as well as extension below Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0461/1.1050 at 1.0686, to confirm bearish resumption towards next targets at 1.0612/00 19 Mar higher low / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.0461/1.1050.
Res: 1.0844; 1.0881; 1.0920; 1.0947
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0749; 1.0711; 1.0686
EUR/JPY
The pair trades in near-term consolidative phase, above 128.60 base, with yesterday’s Doji, confirming a brief pause in descend from 131.50, 24 Mar recovery peak. Near-term tone remains weak, with consolidative action being capped under 129.44, yesterday’s high and consolidation top, reinforced by descending gaily 20SMA. In case that stronger recovery attempts break and close above the latter, initial signal of higher base formation and stronger corrective action, will be given, with regain of 130.31, Fibonacci 61.8% of 131.50/128.39 downleg / 27/31 Mar lower platform, required to confirm. Otherwise, prevailing bears would look for fresh extension lower after completion of near-term consolidation. Higher base at 128.25 and 128.02, Fibonacci 76.4% of 126.89/131.68 upleg, mark initial targets, ahead of key support at 126.89, 13 Mar low.
Res: 129.44; 129.57; 129.94; 130.31
Sup: 128.59; 128.39; 128.02; 127.61
GBP/USD
Repeated Doji that came after yesterday’s wider amplitude trading, confirms near-term sideways mode, as the price holds around magnetic 1.48 handle, with immediate consolidation being capped by daily 10SMA and overall price action of the past month, holding under falling daily 20SMA. Near-term studies remain in neutral mode, as the pair extends consolidation above near-term base, forming at 1.4750 zone. On the other side, overall picture remains bearish and favors clear break below already cracked former base of 2013 at 1.4812, for retest of fresh low of 18 Mar at 1.4633 and resumption of larger downtrend from 1.7189, peak of July 2014, on completion of triangular consolidation, shown on the daily chart. Daily 20SMA marks initial pivotal barrier at 1.4881 and close above here would spark fresh recovery towards 1.50 breakpoint zone.
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Res: 1.4844; 1.4881; 1.4920; 1.4953
Sup: 1.4815; 1.4750; 1.4737; 1.4720
USD/JPY
The pair came under pressure after repeated upside rejection at 120.31 yesterday, triggered fresh acceleration lower that pressures near-term base, formed at 119.40. Yesterday’s close in long red candle, confirms near-term bears returning to play, after the price failed to clear daily 20SMA at 120.35 and bear-trendline off 122.01 peak at 120.41. Hourly studies turned negative, while 4-hour technicals are losing traction, with the price action holding in near-term consolidative phase and still above 119.40 base. Daily indicators are heading lower and attempt below their midlines that keeps the downside favored in the near-term. Resumption of yesterday’s leg-lower, through pivotal 119.40 support, to open immediate support of daily 55SMA at 119.26 and more significant 118.31/20, 26 Mar fresh low/ Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 115.83/122.01 rally, loss of which to confirm daily failure-swing formation and resume pullback from fresh high at 122.01. Only fresh strength through pivotal 120.35/41 barriers would neutralize downside threats.
Res: 119.76; 120.13; 120.35; 120.41
Sup: 119.40; 119.26; 119.96; 118.61
AUD/USD
The pair remains under pressure and approaches key support at 0.7558, low of 11Mar. Bearish tone persists on all timeframes and favors eventual break below 0.7558 handle, to resume larger downtrend. Yesterday’s consolidative attempts were short-lived and left red Doji with long upper shadow that signals strong selling interest. Peak’s of past two days at 0.7663, mark initial resistance, ahead of daily 20SMA at 0.77 zone, where also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.7936/0.7566 downleg lies and only close above here would sideline immediate bears and mark prolonged hesitation ahead of pivotal 0.7558 support.
Res: 0.7639; 0.7663; 0.7700; 0.7751
Sup: 0.7566; 0.7558; 0.7500; 0.7450
AUD/NZD
The cross remains under pressure and resumes descend towards psychological 1.01 support, after completing near-term consolidative phase. Repeated upside rejection left hourly double-top at 1.0255 zone, where rallies were capped by descending daily 10SMA, ahead of fresh acceleration lower that broke below near-term base at 1.0155 and resumed lower to post fresh historical lows. Persisting bearish tone on all timeframes suggests further downside, with widening daily 20d Bollingers, supporting the notion. Probe below 1.01 handle to open way towards parity level. Yesterday’s and 30 Mar highs at 1.0255/59, mark initial resistance, ahead of falling daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0323 and only close above here would provide near-term relief.
Res: 1.0155; 1.0219; 1.0255; 1.0323
Sup: 1.0129; 1.0100; 1.0050; 1.0000
XAU/USD
Spot Gold completed reversal pattern and regained levels above psychological 1200 barrier, after pullback from 1219 peak was contained by daily 20SMA at 1178. Yesterday’s long green candle confirms fresh bullish stance, with near-term studies turning positive and price action re-focusing key barriers at 1219/23, highs of 26/02 Mar. Formation of higher low at 1178 was confirmed, as fresh rally retraced nearly 76.4% of 1219/1178 corrective pullback and consolidative phase off fresh high at 1208, holds for now above 1200 handle. Ascending daily Tenkan-sen at 1198 and daily 10SMA at 1193, underpin the action and mark pivotal supports.
Res: 1208; 1213; 1219; 1223
Sup: 1201; 1198; 1193; 1190
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