Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD
FinFX | Mar 02, 2015 07:34AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro maintains negative tone and extended losses on Asian trading, to post new low at 1.1158. Last Friday’s Doji did not affect overall bears, as weekly close was marked by long red candle and month ended below psychological 1.1209, Fibonacci 61.8% of multi-year ascend from 0.8225, 2000 low to 1.6039, 2008 peak and psychological 1.1200 handle. Technicals are bearish on all timeframes and focus key short-term support at 1.1096, 26 Jan year-to-date low, for full retracement of 1.1096/1.1532 corrective phase and resumption of larger downtrend, signaled by close below 1.1096. Corrective action on oversold near-term studies is expected to precede fresh leg lower. Filling overnight minor gap could trigger stronger rally, with 1.1243, last Friday’s lower top and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.1378/1.1158 downleg, expected to cap rallies.
Res: 1.1200; 1.1243; 1.1268; 1.1300
Sup: 1.1158; 1.1096; 1.1050; 1.1000
EUR/JPY
Near-term tone remains weak after last Friday’s Doji and bounce from fresh low at 133.42. Price action is established in near-term range between 133.42 and 134.25, with neutral hourly studies, suggesting consolidation, before fresh action. Contracting 20d Bollingers are also supportive for consolidative phase, while daily 20SMA, currently at 134.80, marks breakpoint and sustained break higher is required to neutralize existing downside pressure. Conversely, loss of 133.42 support, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, is expected to accelerate pullback from 136.68, high of 11 Feb and signal further retracement of 130.13/136.68 corrective rally.
Res: 134.25; 134.67; 135.00; 135.35
Sup: 133.42; 133.00; 132.63; 132.00
GBP/USD
Cable entered near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.5382, moving within 1.5382/1.5457 range. Tone of near-term studies remains negative and keeps the downside vulnerable, as Friday’s close occurred below daily Tenkan-sen line, keeping daily cloud top at 1.5446, intact for now. On the other side, consolidation was signaled by contracting 20d Bollinger bands and ascending daily 20SMA, currently at 1.5348, protecting the downside for now. Positive daily studies favor reversal above 20SMA, to keep larger uptrend from 1.4950 in play. Otherwise, violation of initial support at 1.5382 and daily 20SMA, would be bearish signal for further extension of pullback from 1.5551 high, towards next strong support zone at 1.5330, higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4950/1.5551 rally, loss of which to sideline larger bulls.
Res: 1.5427; 1.5457; 1.5486; 1.5515
Sup: 1.5382; 1.5348; 1.5330; 1.5315
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USD/JPY
The pair remains supported and eyes psychological 120 barrier, which was approached today, after Friday’s positive close above pivotal 119.40 barrier. Technicals are positive and favor further upside, which could be interrupted on consolidation near 120 barrier, as hourly studies are overbought. Former barrier at 119.40 should ideally protect the downside, before final push through 120 and attack at key 120.46 barrier, high of 11 Feb. Only close below ascending daily 20SMA, which underpins the rally and currently lies at 118.86, would neutralize bulls.
Res: 120.00; 120.46; 120.80; 121.00
Sup: 119.40; 119.00; 118.86; 118.61
AUD/USD
The pair remains under pressure and probes below daily 20SMA, currently at 0.7791 that contained last week’s dips. Aussie focuses tomorrow’s RBA’s rate decision, with rate cut expected. The downside remains vulnerable and extension below 20SMA and higher base at 0.7730, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7624/0.7911 ascend, would signal an end of short-term corrective phase and re-focus key support at 0.7624, 03 Feb fresh 5 ½ year low. Conversely, close above last Friday’s high at 0.7832, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, would signal further consolidation.
Res: 0.7806; 0.7832; 0.7853; 0.7875
Sup: 0.7760; 0.7730; 0.7715; 0.7700
AUD/NZD
The pair remains under pressure and continues to move lower, approaching key near-term support at 1.0296, 19 Feb low. Completion of 1.0296/1.0472 corrective phase, to resume larger bears and open way for further easing. Bearish tone dominates on all timeframe’s technicals, with daily 10SMA, offering initial resistance at 1.0369, ahead of descending daily 20SMA at 1.0427, above which lies pivotal static barrier at 1.0472, lower top of 25 Feb. The pair eyes RBA’s monetary policy decision, which is expected to be a main driver in the near-term.
Res: 1.0369; 1.0400; 1.0424; 1.0472
Sup: 1.0307; 1.0296; 1.0285; 1.0200
XAU/USD
Spot Gold holds positive near-term tone, following last Friday’s close above daily 10SMA and today’s fresh strength that approaches next strong barrier at 1224, daily 20SMA and daily Ichimoku cloud base. Sustained break here is required to resume near-term recovery towards pivotal 1236 barrier, lower top of 16 Feb and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1307/1190 downleg, break of which to confirm higher low at 1190 and spark stronger recovery. Near-term studies are bullish, with daily indicators heading north and supporting further upside. However, hesitation on approach to strong 1224 barrier, cannot be ruled out, as hourly studies approach overbought territory. Daily 10SMA, currently at 1207, should contain extended dips.
Res: 1224; 1228; 1230; 1236
Sup: 1219; 1210; 1207; 1204
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