Daily Insight: EUR/USD Seeking To Fade Any Rallies
Matt Simpson | Nov 24, 2014 02:46AM ET
UP NEXT:
JPY: Bank Holiday
EUR: German data will be closely watched as they're the largest economy in the [struggling] Eurozone. Business climate peaked in Feb and within a clear downtrend and expected to soften further more today. With price in free-fall then there is potential for a surprise upside if it comes in above 103.4 expected - just keep in mind this is an outside chance.
USD: Services PMI peaked in June and a slight reduction is expected tonight. If it does soften it is unlikely to change the bullish trend of the USD Index but it may retrace within Friday's range and provide support against other crosses.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
EURUSD: Seeking to fade any rallies (however small)
So... after spending most of last week suggesting 1.60 was the top, it dropped in spectacular fashion and is the kind of movement that probably happened when you left your screens to make a cup of tea. This is where set and forget orders can help.
It reached the base of the rising wedge (yes I consider it to be a wedge even though it had movements outside of the trendlines) and has seen profit taking at these lows. However the dominant trends remain bearish so I'll continue to seek areas of resistance to sell into.
The chart today will probably suffice for the next few days unless we break to new lows as I doubt I'll be reassessing the analysis unless we see a break above 1.250.
USDCAD: Rests at an interesting juncture
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I cover this in more detail in today's video but thought you may want as closer look at the levels. Simply put a break below the bullish trendline targets 1.12 and a break above 1.126 assumes a resumption of the uptrend.
USDJPY: Raging uptrend - do not fight it!
This is pretty straight forward. It is in a raging bull market and taking a little rest. When USD/JPY breaks out it tends to do so with gusto, so is ideal for breakout / set and forget trades.
We could assume 117.20 was a swing low and either enter live at market now or wait for a break above 118.10 to target the highs (and probably beyond).
Only a break below 117.058 would raise a concern and likely deeper pullback towards 116.32
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