Daily Analysis For August 19: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
SGT Markets | Aug 19, 2016 07:08AM ET
EUR/USD
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1340
2nd Resistance: 1.1385
1st Support: 1.1205
2nd Support: 1.1115
3rd Support: 1.1027
EUR
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, German Manufacturing PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector as surveyed in Germany)
Better than Expected. Setting a new high from May 2014
28th of July, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected.
29th of July, CPI (key preliminary inflation data in Europe)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since last February
16th of August, German ZEW Economic Sentiment (gauges the six-month economic outlook. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts)
Contrasted (ZEW Current Conditions better than Expected, ZEW Economic Sentiment worse than Expected)
Eyes on today release: European CPI (Consumer Price Index, measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer)
USD
Recent Facts:
21st of July 2016, Existing Home Sales
Better than Expected. Setting a new high since August 2015, which was the highest value of the last 6 years
29th of July, Gross Domestic Product QoQ (preliminary)
Worse than Expected. Actual = +1.2% Expectations were at +2.6%
3rd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected. Continuing the up-trend from last May
5th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected (for the second month in a row), Unemployment Rate pared
9th of August, United States Nonfarm productivity
Worse than Expected
12th of August, U.S. Retail Sales (essential for a better understanding of the Fed’s future interest rates policies)
Worse than Expected
16th of August, Building Permits
Worse than Expected
17th of August, FOMC Meeting Minutes (U.S.A.)
Economists see the December meeting as the most likely time for a rate increase since it follows the U.S. presidential election
GBP/USD
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Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3220
2nd Resistance: 1.3380
1st Support: 1.3080
2nd Support: 1.2885
3rd Support: 1.2680
GBP
Recent Facts:
22nd of July 2016, UK Services PMI (key indicator of the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector)
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low, the lowest value of the last 7 years
27th of July 2016, Gross Domestic Product (preliminary)
Better than Expected
4th of August, Bank of England Interest Rates decision (expected a cut)
Bank of England lowers Interest Rates as Expected (record low of 0.25%) and increases purchase program
09th of August, Manufacturing Production (measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers)
Slightly Worse than Expected
09th of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected. Setting a new historical low
16th of August, UK Consumer Price Index (measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation)
Higher than Expected. Setting a new high since January 2015
18th of August, U.K. Retail Sales
Better than Expected. Core Retail Sales YoY at the highest since November 2015
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
AUD/USD
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.7690
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7510
2nd Support: 0.7420
3rd Support: 0.7200
AUD
Recent Facts:
19th of July 2016, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
Possible further easing in the next month to counteract the negative shock from the Brexit vote
26th of July, CPI (key inflation data in Australia) pared
2nd of August, Interest Rates decision cut to from 1.75% to 1.50% as Expected
4th of August, Retail Sales (Jun)
Worse than Expected
11th of August, Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate statement
Interest rates cut (to 2%) as Expected
18th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected. Highest since the beginning of this year
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
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