Daily FX Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
SGT Markets | Apr 19, 2018 04:19AM ET
EUR/USD
Eurozone CPI confirmed a lower ticking.
German ZEW came worse than analysts expected. On the other hand, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Tuesday said the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates. The Fed's target rate is currently for a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75, 2-percent goal expected this year and stay at or above that goal for "another couple of years" and most Fed policymakers expect the rate to be between 3.1 percent and 3.6 percent by 2020.
Investors remained cautious as the US prepared to announce a fresh round of economic sanctions on Russia related to its involvement in Syria’s use of chemical weapons.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI worse than expected, US Manufacturing PMI data also lower than expected while last US GDP data ticked above analysts’ expectations.
Overbought. We expected a bounce back to 1.23 Demand area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.2385
2nd Resistance: 1.2552
1st Support: 1.2170
2nd Support: 1.2080
EUR
Recent Facts:
31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected
1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected
15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected
19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected
22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)
28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected
Get The News You Want
29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected
25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary
31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected
2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected
14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected
23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected
14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of January, German Unemployment
Better than Expected
5th of January, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
As Expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
31st of January, German Unemployment + Eurozone CPI
Better than Expected
14th of February, Eurozone GDP data
As Expected, Industrial Production Better than Expected
21st of February, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
16th of March, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
20th of March, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected (18-month low)
29th of March, German Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
29th of March, German CPI
Lower than Expected
4th of April, Core CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected
17th of April, German ZEW
Worse than Expected
18th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected
12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected
13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected
27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected
1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish
3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
US Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; US Wage Inflation flat
14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected
30th of November, US GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected
8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
13th of December, US Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing US economic expansion.
14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected
21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected
3rd of January, ISM Manufacturing data
ISM Manufacturing Better than Expected
5th of January, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
11th of January, Production Price Index
Worse than Expected
12th of January, CPI
Better than Expected
19th of January, Building Permits
Better than Expected
19th of January, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release) + Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected, Durable Goods Orders way better than expected
1st of February, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of February, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected
14th of February, Core CPI, Retail Sales
CPI better than expected, Retail Sales Worse than Expected
27th of February, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of February, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
9th of March, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected, Wage Inflation and Unemployment Rate worse than expected
13th of March, Core CPI
As Expected
28th of March, GDP data
Better than Expected
2nd of April, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
4th of April, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
6th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Worse than expected
16th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
GBP/USD
UK CPI (Inflation data) ticked again down, clearly confirming a contraction phase started at the beginning of this year.
Eyes on today UK Retail Sales data, after that UK Job Market data came better than expected with a better Unemployment Rate.
Britain will leave the EU next March and enjoy a status-quo transition until the end of 2020, according to the current plan. Then, a new relationship between the sides would kick in, which negotiators from London and the EU are going to discuss in Brussels.
UK Manufacturing Production came negative, Construction PMI settles at the lowest since August 2016. Services PMI also came very bad.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Tuesday said the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates. The Fed's target rate is currently for a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75, and most Fed policymakers expect the rate to be between 3.1 percent and 3.6 percent by 2020.
The US will probably struggle to attract sufficient foreign capital to fund its twin deficits.
Overbought. Target around 1.4315 tested in fake breakout mode so it is being re-absorbed. 1.4125 level will be re-absorbed too.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.4315
2nd Resistance: 1.4590
1st Support: 1.4125
2nd Support: 1.3921
GBP
Recent Facts:
25th of October, UK GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
1st of November, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of November, Interest Rate Decision
Dovish Bank of England raised interest rates but said that any further hikes would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent
10th of November, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
14th of November, UK CPI
Higher than Expected
15th of November, Job market
Better than Expected
16th of November, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
1st of December, UK Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of December, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected
8th of December, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
12th of December, UK CPI data
Higher than Expected
14th of December, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected
22nd of December, GDP
Better than Expected
2nd of January, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
3rd of January, UK Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of January, UK Services PMI
Better than Expected
10th of January, Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
16th of January, UK CPI
As Expected
19th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
24th of January, Job Market
Worse than Expected
26th of January, GDP (Preliminary release)
Better than Expected
1st of February, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
13th of February, CPI
Higher than Expected
16th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
22nd of February, GDP
Worse than Expected
2nd of March, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
5th of March, Services PMI
Better than Expected
9th of March, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
20th of March, CPI (Inflation) data
Lower than Expected
21st of March, Job Market
Better than Expected
22nd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
22nd of March, BoE Interest Rates Decision vote
More members on hike
3rd of April, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
4th of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
11th of April, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
17th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected
18th of April, UK CPI
Lower than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
AUD/USD
Australia Employment Change rose less than expected and Unemployment Rate unchanged.
On the other hand, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams recently said the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates. The Fed's target rate is currently for a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75, 2-percent goal expected this year and stay at or above that goal for "another couple of years" and most Fed policymakers expect the rate to be between 3.1 percent and 3.6 percent by 2020.
US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate disappointed analysts’ expectations. US Non-Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing PMI also lower than expected.
0.7735 successfully tested and broken, as written in the previous commentary, now we expect a consolidation around 0.7828.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 0.7828
2nd Resistance: 0.7916
1st Support: 0.7735
2nd Support: 0.7680
AUD
Recent Facts:
7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)
29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%
6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected
11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected
12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected
20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected
17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative
30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected
1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected
7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
19th of September, House Price Index
Higher than Expected
5th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
19th of October, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
3rd of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
16th of November, Australia Employment Change
Worse than Expected
5th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of December, RBA Interest Rate decision and Statement
Economy is growing
6th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
14th of December, Employment data
Better than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of January, Employment Change
Australia Employment change better than expected, Unemployment Rate worsens
1st of February, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
1st of February, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
6th of February, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
9th of February, Home loans
Worse than Expected
15th of February, Employment Change
Better than Expected
6th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
22nd of March, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
4th of April, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
5th of April, Trade Balance
Better than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
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