USD/CHF Sees Minimal Disruption From Nonfarm Payrolls
Ian Copsey | May 11, 2015 12:10AM ET
USD/CHF INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: We should see follow-through to 0.9360-67 and later higher but hold below 0.9412
Resistance: 0.9323 0.9335-40 0.9360-67 0.9386
Support: 0.9278 0.9250 0.9226 0.9194-00
MAIN ANALYSIS: The move higher extended well on Friday, as expected, with minimal disruption from the NFP. This should see gains extend to the 0.9335-40 area - max 0.9660-67. Watch this carefully for any potential bearish reversal indications. 0.9360-67 area. I suspect a high in this area for quite a deep correction.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: If, from 0.9360-67 we only see a correction of around 30-40 points, then there may be a risk of follow-through higher to approach the 0.9412 high, but I doubt it will break. Even if it does break, I don't expect much follow-through. Watch for bearish reversal indications or price patterns to confirm the reversal lower.
Thus any loss of 0.9250 would risk losses back to 0.9194
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
11th May: I note we have seen a 2-bar bullish Key Reversal. However, we're unlikely to see a break above the 0.9412 corrective high and more likely to see a correction lower.
7th May: We've seen 0.9140-50 - and now below. We don't have the momentum conditions in place to suggest a reversal but it is still possible. The 0.9074-89 area is the favored target - and below 0.9043-60. Ensure that divergences are in place and confirm with EUR/USD also.
Back above 0.9220-40 would help higher - and above 0.9412 should confirm the reversal back to an uptrend...
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