EUR/USD: Watch For Corrective Behavior
Ian Copsey | Sep 28, 2015 01:56AM ET
INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: Having seen a deeper recovery and the risk of consolidation elsewhere, I suspect we may see corrective behaviour
- Resistance:1.1212-201.12351.12531.1274
- Support:1.1182-871.1160-691.1140-451.1115
MAIN ANALYSIS: While we saw the deeper correction to the 1.1188-1.1215 area, with the outlook for GBP/USD and USD/CHF potentially generating sideways consolidation, I am wary today and prefer to be neutral today - but of course depending on how USD/CHF and GBP/USD develop. However, at the most, any deeper move higher could now see the 1.1235-53 area -- although stops would have to be placed above 1.1295. While the upside risk continues the 1.1160-69 area should support. Thus, watch for bearish reversal indications at higher levels or on a break below 1.1150.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only above 1.1295 would surprise and retest the 1.1329-50 area. Also note 1.1378-90 that should be observed for bearish reversal indications.
Directly below 1.1150 would suggest more direct losses.
MEDIUM-TERM ANALYSIS:
18th September: The recycling higher has been frustrating and much deeper than expected but appears valid. However, we do need confirmation of the larger decline. That all currency pairs appear to have reached their retracement limits tends to suggest resumption of dollar gains. A break below 1.1213 would extend losses back down to the 1.1086 low and 1.1017-35...
Only back above 1.1440-60 would risk a deeper correction - but only above 1.1712 would once again frustrate but I'll need to review again.
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