Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY : October 14, 2016
ActionForex | Oct 14, 2016 02:32AM ET
Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.14; (P) 126.80; (R1) 127.70;
No change in GBP/JPY's outlook as some more consolidations could be seen. But outlook stays bearish with 129.61 resistance intact. The larger down trend would extend to 61.8% projection of 163.87 to 128.66 from 138.81 at 117.05. Meanwhile, break of 129.61 support turned neutral will confirm bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation.
In the bigger picture, fall from 195.86 medium term top is still in progress and met 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71. There is prospect of retesting 116.83 (2011 low). On the upside, break of 138.81 resistance is needed to be the first sign medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.99; (P) 114.57; (R1) 115.22;
Rebound from 112.07 could have completed at 116.27, ahead of 116.36 resistance. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 112.07 support. At this point, we're slightly favoring the case that 109.20 is a medium term bottom and expect rebound from there to extend. Hence, we'd expect downside to be contained by 112.07 and bring rebound. Break of 116.36 will target 100% projection of 109.20 to 118.45 from 112.07 at 121.32. We'd be cautious on topping there are it's close to long term fibonacci level at 121.36. Though, firm break of 112.07 will bring retest of 109.20 low.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is in place at 109.20 and rebound from there would extend. However, momentum isn't convincing enough for trend reversal yet. Hence, in case of stronger rise, we'd be expecting strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 141.04 to 109.20 at 121.36 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 112.07 will extend the down trend from 149.76 to 76.4% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 107.24.
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