Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY : November 17, 2016
ActionForex | Nov 17, 2016 07:44AM ET
Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.55; (P) 135.55; (R1) 136.96;
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside with 134.17 minor support intact. As noted before, bullish convergence condition in daily MACD raises the chance of trend reversal and focus will be on 138.81. On the downside, below 134.17 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring retreat. We'll assess the near term outlook later in that case.
In the bigger picture, fall from 195.86 (2015 high) top has met 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71 already. There is increasing chance of medium term bottoming at 112.36. Break of 138.81 would turn GBP/JPY into corrective phase and bring rebound to 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.43 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 122.36 will extend the down trend to 116.83 (2011 low).
Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.25; (P) 116.86; (R1) 117.22;
A temporary top is in place at 117.47 and intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first. As long as 115.29 minor support holds, further rise is expected. But still, as price actions from 109.20 are seen as a consolidative pattern, we'd expect strong resistance from longer term fibonacci level at 121.36 to limit upside. Meanwhile, below 115.29 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and extend recent consolidation from 109.20.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 109.20 and rebound from there would extend. However, momentum isn't convincing enough for trend reversal yet. Hence, in case of stronger rise, we'd be expecting strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 141.04 to 109.20 at 121.36 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 112.06 support will likely extend the down trend from 149.76 to 76.4% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 107.24.
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