Currency Speculators Slashed US Dollar Bullish Bets As Positions Fall
Zachary Storella | Dec 22, 2014 12:53AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators sharply cut back on their overall US dollar bullish bets as USD positions fell for a third week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $34.64 billion as of Tuesday December 16th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$7.55 billion from the $42.19 billion total long position that was registered on December 9th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar’s decline last week represented the largest weekly decline since March 18th (-$8.57 billion) and the overall bullish position fell below the +$40 billion level for the first time since September.
Despite the overall decline in USD positions, all the other individually tracked currencies continued to have a net bearish position versus the dollar for an eleventh straight week.
Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts
In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts declined for a second straight week last week to a total of +335,131 contracts as of Tuesday December 16th. This was a change by -61,880 contracts from the total of +397,011 contracts as of Tuesday December 9th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies remain net bearish position versus the USD for 11th week
Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday December 16th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price /h3EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 463976 | 60454 | 224347 | -163893 | 15128 |
| 11/18/2014 | 465168 | 58048 | 226778 | -168730 | -4837 |
| 11/25/2014 | 465339 | 57982 | 223062 | -165080 | 3650 |
| 12/02/2014 | 462058 | 57272 | 216551 | -159279 | 5801 |
| 12/09/2014 | 477861 | 58306 | 195218 | -136912 | 22367 |
| 12/16/2014 | 368171 | 56179 | 182834 | -126655 | 10257 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 151660 | 40661 | 53552 | -12891 | -5429 |
| 11/18/2014 | 166966 | 42865 | 65694 | -22829 | -9938 |
| 11/25/2014 | 171730 | 38541 | 69207 | -30666 | -7837 |
| 12/02/2014 | 174875 | 38556 | 69570 | -31014 | -348 |
| 12/09/2014 | 192104 | 37695 | 61297 | -23602 | 7412 |
| 12/16/2014 | 137581 | 37861 | 52413 | -14552 | 9050 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 227576 | 47271 | 129834 | -82563 | -10912 |
| 11/18/2014 | 238898 | 46612 | 139066 | -92454 | -9891 |
| 11/25/2014 | 253976 | 46304 | 150684 | -104380 | -11926 |
| 12/02/2014 | 257828 | 41530 | 152690 | -111160 | -6780 |
| 12/09/2014 | 279859 | 38067 | 142203 | -104136 | 7024 |
| 12/16/2014 | 227685 | 45652 | 132579 | -86927 | 17209 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 61280 | 8752 | 31427 | -22675 | -2454 |
| 11/18/2014 | 60718 | 9142 | 31258 | -22116 | 559 |
| 11/25/2014 | 61037 | 8153 | 31577 | -23424 | -1308 |
| 12/02/2014 | 63659 | 8628 | 31550 | -22922 | 502 |
| 12/09/2014 | 78496 | 8971 | 31068 | -22097 | 825 |
| 12/16/2014 | 51377 | 18905 | 22560 | -3655 | 18442 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 108445 | 32668 | 54514 | -21846 | -2431 |
| 11/18/2014 | 106914 | 32082 | 51599 | -19517 | 2329 |
| 11/25/2014 | 102393 | 32106 | 48447 | -16341 | 3176 |
| 12/02/2014 | 101752 | 28533 | 46922 | -18389 | -2048 |
| 12/09/2014 | 109650 | 33406 | 47768 | -14362 | 4027 |
| 12/16/2014 | 129475 | 32397 | 48091 | -15694 | -1332 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 123726 | 12896 | 50923 | -38027 | 241 |
| 11/18/2014 | 117859 | 9522 | 47124 | -37602 | 425 |
| 11/25/2014 | 127008 | 12050 | 56138 | -44088 | -6486 |
| 12/02/2014 | 133675 | 13565 | 54675 | -41110 | 2978 |
| 12/09/2014 | 159287 | 17378 | 62391 | -45013 | -3903 |
| 12/16/2014 | 116787 | 26786 | 61039 | -34253 | 10760 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 19809 | 9244 | 10233 | -989 | 3120 |
| 11/18/2014 | 19907 | 9134 | 10381 | -1247 | -258 |
| 11/25/2014 | 21096 | 9630 | 11924 | -2294 | -1047 |
| 12/02/2014 | 20448 | 9272 | 10952 | -1680 | 614 |
| 12/09/2014 | 23550 | 9786 | 12081 | -2295 | -615 |
| 12/16/2014 | 18447 | 9865 | 10504 | -639 | 1656 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/11/2014 | 167364 | 29393 | 59067 | -29674 | -3084 |
| 11/18/2014 | 167389 | 31305 | 60339 | -29034 | 640 |
| 11/25/2014 | 176125 | 26386 | 58938 | -32552 | -3518 |
| 12/02/2014 | 191208 | 30210 | 73214 | -43004 | -10452 |
| 12/09/2014 | 213159 | 32116 | 80710 | -48594 | -5590 |
| 12/16/2014 | 137628 | 25843 | 78599 | -52756 | -4162 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
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