Currency Speculators Sharply Pared US Dollar Bullish Positions
Zachary Storella | Jun 22, 2015 12:52AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators sharply reduced their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week to the lowest level in almost a year.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $23.82 billion as of Tuesday June 16th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$10.88 billion from the $34.70 billion total long position that was registered on June 9th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last week’s data brings the US dollar speculative level to the lowest level since July 29th of 2014, when net positions stood at $20.24 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Swiss franc and the Mexican peso.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday June 16th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar, while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price /h3Editor’s Note: I have swapped out some of the spot currency charts (JPY,CHF,CAD) to their respective ETF instruments and in the case of MXN, I have switched the chart from USD/MXN to MXN/USD. This is to better reflect a simpler comparison of price and the futures positions of the large traders (commercial and speculative) for each currency.
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EuroFX: The large speculative euro positions rose sharply again last week to gain for the seventh week out of the last eight. On the commercial trader side, bullish contracts were trimmed sharply and fell for a third week.
Last Six Weeks Data for Euro Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 439122 | -10132 | 217168 | -10743 | -178976 | 11151 |
| 20150519 | 428580 | -10542 | 208434 | -8734 | -168339 | 10637 |
| 20150526 | 431927 | 3347 | 208443 | 9 | -171740 | -3401 |
| 20150602 | 428403 | -3524 | 207136 | -1307 | -165512 | 6228 |
| 20150609 | 436540 | 8137 | 176715 | -30421 | -137974 | 27538 |
| 20150616 | 350145 | -86395 | 122971 | -53744 | -89357 | 48617 |
British Pound Sterling: Large speculator British pound bets rose slightly last week after falling for the previous three weeks. Commercial traders trimmed their overall bullish positions to the lowest level in five weeks.
Last Six Weeks Data for Pound Sterling Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 183586 | 10118 | 38987 | 8644 | -30769 | -6011 |
| 20150519 | 182607 | -979 | 23388 | -15599 | -23362 | 7407 |
| 20150526 | 176797 | -5810 | 26865 | 3477 | -25539 | -2177 |
| 20150602 | 175291 | -1506 | 28514 | 1649 | -25658 | -119 |
| 20150609 | 181049 | 5758 | 30440 | 1926 | -28277 | -2619 |
| 20150616 | 146635 | -34414 | 25547 | -4893 | -25434 | 2843 |
Japanese Yen: Large speculator Japanese yen bets rebounded last week after falling sharply for a three straight weeks, while the commercial trader position, which had been accumulating yen for the previous four weeks, reduced their position by over -40,000 contracts.
Last Six Weeks Data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 193296 | -5590 | 59014 | -7985 | -23593 | 7590 |
| 20150519 | 231658 | 38362 | 70583 | 11569 | -22005 | 1588 |
| 20150526 | 251744 | 20086 | 117958 | 47375 | -62224 | -40219 |
| 20150602 | 260104 | 8360 | 140846 | 22888 | -85693 | -23469 |
| 20150609 | 306449 | 46345 | 174477 | 33631 | -116286 | -30593 |
| 20150616 | 262329 | -44120 | 130620 | -43857 | -80664 | 35622 |
Swiss Franc: Large speculator Swiss franc bets declined last week, and roughly cut their remaining bullish position in half to approximately +5,000 contracts. The commercial trader position reduced their small existing bearish position to just about neutral territory.
Last Six Weeks Data for Franc Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 33465 | -984 | -7405 | -7816 | 10550 | 5219 |
| 20150519 | 31796 | -1669 | -8395 | -990 | 9405 | -1145 |
| 20150526 | 30432 | -1364 | -6281 | 2114 | 8330 | -1075 |
| 20150602 | 32449 | 2017 | -4873 | 1408 | 8359 | 29 |
| 20150609 | 33813 | 1364 | -5885 | -1012 | 10129 | 1770 |
| 20150616 | 19852 | -13961 | -1509 | 4376 | 5358 | -4771 |
Canadian Dollar: Speculative Canadian dollar bets declined rose last week after falling the previous two weeks, with the bearish position back over -10,000 contracts. Commercial traders added slightly to their existing bullish positions for a fourth straight week.
Last Six Weeks Data for Canadian Dollar Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 123908 | 1800 | 693 | -12870 | -3982 | 6098 |
| 20150519 | 117811 | -6097 | -1396 | -2089 | 4348 | 8330 |
| 20150526 | 121908 | 4097 | -365 | 1031 | 7333 | 2985 |
| 20150602 | 123127 | 1219 | 12334 | 12699 | -1025 | -8358 |
| 20150609 | 118799 | -4328 | 22678 | 10344 | -13745 | -12720 |
| 20150616 | 118620 | -179 | 22962 | 284 | -12281 | 1464 |
Australian Dollar: Large speculators boosted Australian dollar bets last week by approximately +10,000 contracts, and the net bearish position declined to under -5,000 contracts. Meanwhile, the commercial traders trimmed their net bullish by almost 15,000 contracts last week.
Last Six Weeks Data for Australian Dollar Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 136249 | -752 | 10325 | -2511 | 4487 | 3861 |
| 20150519 | 142589 | 6340 | 4058 | -6267 | 7323 | 2836 |
| 20150526 | 144495 | 1906 | 11898 | 7840 | 6422 | -901 |
| 20150602 | 156474 | 11979 | 33511 | 21613 | -13256 | -19678 |
| 20150609 | 165681 | 9207 | 34010 | 499 | -14027 | -771 |
| 20150616 | 119362 | -46319 | 19713 | -14297 | -4048 | 9979 |
New Zealand Dollar: Large speculator New Zealand dollar positions rebounded modestly after falling for six straight weeks, as large spec NZD positions remain bearish at -9,168 contracts. On the commercial side, hedgers trimmed their bullish position slightly after buying NZD for the previous six weeks.
Last Six Weeks Data for New Zealand Dollar Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 25525 | -2854 | -555 | 7671 | 1770 | -7294 |
| 20150519 | 26331 | 806 | 3676 | 4231 | -2231 | -4001 |
| 20150526 | 28514 | 2183 | 7660 | 3984 | -5087 | -2856 |
| 20150602 | 33005 | 4491 | 13187 | 5527 | -10539 | -5452 |
| 20150609 | 36911 | 3906 | 15032 | 1845 | -11795 | -1256 |
| 20150616 | 37169 | 258 | 12698 | -2334 | -9168 | 2627 |
Mexican Peso: Speculative Mexican peso bets fell for a 5th week last week, as net bearish positions remained in bearish territory by over -50,000 contracts. Commercial traders also trimmed their weekly bets last week by -1,551 contracts. The commercials had added to MXN bullish positions for the previous five weeks.
Last Six Weeks Data for Mexican Peso Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150512 | 135526 | -10892 | 30023 | -22920 | -27039 | 23077 |
| 20150519 | 127349 | -8177 | 33589 | 3566 | -31331 | -4292 |
| 20150526 | 129030 | 1681 | 36053 | 2464 | -32516 | -1185 |
| 20150602 | 152809 | 23779 | 48239 | 12186 | -45127 | -12611 |
| 20150609 | 179026 | 26217 | 55973 | 7734 | -51132 | -6005 |
| 20150616 | 133660 | -45366 | 54422 | -1551 | -52490 | -1358 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
/h3
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