Currency Speculators Raise U.S. Dollar Bullish Positions
Zachary Storella | Jul 26, 2015 01:42AM ET
Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currenciesh3
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators added to their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week for the fourth straight week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $29.77 billion as of Tuesday July 21st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$2.48 billion from the $27.29 billion total long position that was registered on July 14th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last week’s data brings the US dollar speculative level to the highest level since June 9th, when net positions stood at $34.70 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets for the British pound sterling, Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar, while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday July 21st, and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar, while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price/h3EuroFX:
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Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 350145 | -86395 | 122971 | -53744 | -89357 | 48617 |
| 20150623 | 345427 | -4718 | 131909 | 8938 | -99306 | -9949 |
| 20150630 | 346115 | 688 | 134756 | 2847 | -100035 | -729 |
| 20150707 | 354885 | 8770 | 141478 | 6722 | -99266 | 769 |
| 20150714 | 356760 | 1875 | 143924 | 2446 | -107781 | -8515 |
| 20150721 | 366892 | 10132 | 153115 | 9191 | -112976 | -5195 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 146635 | -34414 | 25547 | -4893 | -25434 | 2843 |
| 20150623 | 178641 | 32006 | 15587 | -9960 | -22194 | 3240 |
| 20150630 | 181413 | 2772 | 7118 | -8469 | -12759 | 9435 |
| 20150707 | 168480 | -12933 | 21171 | 14053 | -22973 | -10214 |
| 20150714 | 157073 | -11407 | 23213 | 2042 | -24199 | -1226 |
| 20150721 | 164779 | 7706 | 19635 | -3578 | -21468 | 2731 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 262329 | -44120 | 130620 | -43857 | -80664 | 35622 |
| 20150623 | 247839 | -14490 | 135324 | 4704 | -87717 | -7053 |
| 20150630 | 254014 | 6175 | 117282 | -18042 | -78822 | 8895 |
| 20150707 | 250828 | -3186 | 100465 | -16817 | -63629 | 15193 |
| 20150714 | 247704 | -3124 | 83497 | -16968 | -47371 | 16258 |
| 20150721 | 251136 | 3432 | 99635 | 16138 | -62314 | -14943 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 19852 | -13961 | -1509 | 4376 | 5358 | -4771 |
| 20150623 | 21869 | 2017 | -3348 | -1839 | 7072 | 1714 |
| 20150630 | 21472 | -397 | -3501 | -153 | 6855 | -217 |
| 20150707 | 23740 | 2268 | 169 | 3670 | 6121 | -734 |
| 20150714 | 22390 | -1350 | 1305 | 1136 | 3081 | -3040 |
| 20150721 | 28424 | 6034 | 6050 | 4745 | 3417 | 336 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 118620 | -179 | 22962 | 284 | -12281 | 1464 |
| 20150623 | 81380 | -37240 | 24406 | 1444 | -17579 | -5298 |
| 20150630 | 91797 | 10417 | 30753 | 6347 | -23450 | -5871 |
| 20150707 | 120095 | 28298 | 47453 | 16700 | -32268 | -8818 |
| 20150714 | 138431 | 18336 | 60728 | 13275 | -40726 | -8458 |
| 20150721 | 153762 | 15331 | 67331 | 6603 | -43568 | -2842 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 119362 | -46319 | 19713 | -14297 | -4048 | 9979 |
| 20150623 | 116184 | -3178 | 24475 | 4762 | -9052 | -5004 |
| 20150630 | 118443 | 2259 | 28743 | 4268 | -12031 | -2979 |
| 20150707 | 135648 | 17205 | 47565 | 18822 | -22197 | -10166 |
| 20150714 | 148406 | 12758 | 60101 | 12536 | -33541 | -11344 |
| 20150721 | 159796 | 11390 | 70911 | 10810 | -40850 | -7309 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 37169 | 258 | 12698 | -2334 | -9168 | 2627 |
| 20150623 | 42911 | 5742 | 17506 | 4808 | -13563 | -4395 |
| 20150630 | 43256 | 345 | 20163 | 2657 | -16066 | -2503 |
| 20150707 | 42873 | -383 | 22164 | 2001 | -18348 | -2282 |
| 20150714 | 42311 | -562 | 23537 | 1373 | -19654 | -1306 |
| 20150721 | 38544 | -3767 | 20537 | -3000 | -15954 | 3700 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20150616 | 133660 | -45366 | 54422 | -1551 | -52490 | -1358 |
| 20150623 | 111876 | -21784 | 31172 | -23250 | -27867 | 24623 |
| 20150630 | 111471 | -405 | 42553 | 11381 | -38759 | -10892 |
| 20150707 | 140418 | 28947 | 77155 | 34602 | -72415 | -33656 |
| 20150714 | 153639 | 13221 | 77500 | 345 | -72718 | -303 |
| 20150721 | 189662 | 36023 | 86785 | 9285 | -81424 | -8706 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
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