Currency Speculators Pulled Back Sharply On USD Bullish Positions
Zachary Storella | Jun 19, 2016 03:21AM ET
Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
US dollar net speculator positions declined last week to +$2.72 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators sharply decreased their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar last week although overall dollar positions remained in bullish territory for a fourth week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$2.72 billion as of Tuesday June 14th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$8.58 billion from the +$11.30 billion total short position that was registered on June 7th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last’s week decline reversed the trend for the dollar position that saw gains in each of the previous five weeks and had brought the dollar back into positive territory.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the currencies to improve against the US dollar were the British pound sterling (+29,638 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (+12,837 contracts), Swiss franc (+16,775 contracts), euro (+10,623 contracts) and the Australian dollar (+9,030 contracts).
The pound sterling rebounded from a deep selloff the previous week and will likely remain highly volatile with the Brexit referendum coming up on June 23rd. The yen gained for a second week after falling for the previous six weeks while the Swiss franc rose for the first time in five weeks.
Currencies whose speculative net positions declined last week were led by the New Zealand dollar (-12,354 weekly change in contracts) and also included the Mexican peso (-6,310 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-3,097 contracts).
Get The News You Want
This latest COT data is through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | 29484 | 1926 | -21872 | 1747 |
| 20160517 | 34116 | 4632 | -22587 | -715 |
| 20160524 | 48501 | 14385 | -37895 | -15308 |
| 20160531 | 50714 | 2213 | -37654 | 241 |
| 20160607 | 79538 | 28824 | -67112 | -29458 |
| 20160614 | 70705 | -8833 | -56489 | 10623 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | 55022 | -1856 | -34935 | 5473 |
| 20160517 | 60935 | 5913 | -38422 | -3487 |
| 20160524 | 54031 | -6904 | -32835 | 5587 |
| 20160531 | 51984 | -2047 | -32851 | -16 |
| 20160607 | 84439 | 32455 | -66299 | -33448 |
| 20160614 | 58611 | -25828 | -36661 | 29638 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | -63294 | 2201 | 59047 | -2474 |
| 20160517 | -62439 | 855 | 58919 | -128 |
| 20160524 | -23035 | 39404 | 22059 | -36860 |
| 20160531 | -13526 | 9509 | 14837 | -7222 |
| 20160607 | -43861 | -30335 | 42853 | 28016 |
| 20160614 | -57384 | -13523 | 55690 | 12837 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | -978 | 3892 | 6917 | 88 |
| 20160517 | 4440 | 5418 | 4147 | -2770 |
| 20160524 | 11498 | 7058 | 3954 | -193 |
| 20160531 | 13820 | 2322 | 129 | -3825 |
| 20160607 | 22145 | 8325 | -9645 | -9774 |
| 20160614 | 2031 | -20114 | 7130 | 16775 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | -33890 | -3145 | 25874 | 6931 |
| 20160517 | -33527 | 363 | 22706 | -3168 |
| 20160524 | -25595 | 7932 | 20047 | -2659 |
| 20160531 | -30322 | -4727 | 26259 | 6212 |
| 20160607 | -29402 | 920 | 21537 | -4722 |
| 20160614 | -40910 | -11508 | 18440 | -3097 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | -42718 | 15859 | 38158 | -14237 |
| 20160517 | -26088 | 16630 | 24893 | -13265 |
| 20160524 | -605 | 25483 | 124 | -24769 |
| 20160531 | 8618 | 9223 | -4758 | -4882 |
| 20160607 | 19482 | 10864 | -15808 | -11050 |
| 20160614 | 9618 | -9864 | -6778 | 9030 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | -9689 | 854 | 9352 | 152 |
| 20160517 | -6825 | 2864 | 6688 | -2664 |
| 20160524 | -4184 | 2641 | 4576 | -2112 |
| 20160531 | -5439 | -1255 | 5504 | 928 |
| 20160607 | -9944 | -4505 | 8536 | 3032 |
| 20160614 | 1538 | 11482 | -3818 | -12354 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160510 | 47903 | 35353 | -45220 | -32800 |
| 20160517 | 48932 | 1029 | -45691 | -471 |
| 20160524 | 50128 | 1196 | -47460 | -1769 |
| 20160531 | 58047 | 7919 | -55615 | -8155 |
| 20160607 | 61854 | 3807 | -59309 | -3694 |
| 20160614 | 69064 | 7210 | -65619 | -6310 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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