Currency Speculators Cut US Dollar Net Bullish Positions
Zachary Storella | Feb 07, 2016 02:37AM ET
Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
US dollar net speculator positions fell last week to +$18.20 billion.
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week to the lowest level since October.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $18.20 billion as of Tuesday February 2nd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$5.65 billion from the $23.85 billion total long position that was registered on January 26th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last week’s data brings the US dollar spec level to the lowest level since October 20th of 2015, when net positions stood at $13.34 billion. Also, the dollar’s bullish speculator standing has now fallen for 6 straight weeks and for 9 out of the last 10 weeks.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday February 2nd and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
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Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on charts to enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 400497 | -6036 | 180422 | -1649 | -160550 | 497 |
| 20160105 | 407105 | 6608 | 179372 | -1050 | -160643 | -93 |
| 20160112 | 398570 | -8535 | 161751 | -17621 | -146451 | 14192 |
| 20160119 | 400362 | 1792 | 147467 | -14284 | -137015 | 9436 |
| 20160126 | 402227 | 1865 | 142818 | -4649 | -127215 | 9800 |
| 20160202 | 403939 | 1712 | 111997 | -30821 | -87073 | 40142 |
British pound sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 204038 | 9725 | 52811 | 3139 | -31022 | -4361 |
| 20160105 | 221993 | 17955 | 54401 | 1590 | -30496 | 526 |
| 20160112 | 238868 | 16875 | 58816 | 4415 | -30521 | -25 |
| 20160119 | 259589 | 20721 | 64795 | 5979 | -38579 | -8058 |
| 20160126 | 272798 | 13209 | 72297 | 7502 | -47537 | -8958 |
| 20160202 | 270680 | -2118 | 71746 | -551 | -45018 | 2519 |
Japanese yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 196825 | -550 | 34780 | -16158 | -17226 | 13141 |
| 20160105 | 220707 | 23882 | 4543 | -30237 | 4103 | 21329 |
| 20160112 | 241366 | 20659 | -23845 | -28388 | 25266 | 21163 |
| 20160119 | 247614 | 6248 | -40417 | -16572 | 37653 | 12387 |
| 20160126 | 250711 | 3097 | -54641 | -14224 | 50026 | 12373 |
| 20160202 | 237289 | -13422 | -27090 | 27551 | 37245 | -12781 |
Swiss franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 49114 | -1151 | 11937 | 134 | 3564 | 812 |
| 20160105 | 50276 | 1162 | 15078 | 3141 | 3620 | 56 |
| 20160112 | 46428 | -3848 | 12883 | -2195 | 3324 | -296 |
| 20160119 | 49290 | 2862 | 14803 | 1920 | 906 | -2418 |
| 20160126 | 55694 | 6404 | 22174 | 7371 | -4503 | -5409 |
| 20160202 | 59370 | 3676 | 22956 | 782 | -4695 | -192 |
Canadian dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 172137 | 8556 | 80673 | 3924 | -60787 | -4760 |
| 20160105 | 166610 | -5527 | 79735 | -938 | -60130 | 657 |
| 20160112 | 166273 | -337 | 78709 | -1026 | -59214 | 916 |
| 20160119 | 165344 | -929 | 82481 | 3772 | -66386 | -7172 |
| 20160126 | 165240 | -104 | 81197 | -1284 | -66819 | -433 |
| 20160202 | 157362 | -7878 | 70420 | -10777 | -52420 | 14399 |
Australian dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 98174 | -8127 | 28105 | -5463 | -17545 | 3309 |
| 20160105 | 99001 | 827 | 26056 | -2049 | -13761 | 3784 |
| 20160112 | 121590 | 22589 | 46601 | 20545 | -23043 | -9282 |
| 20160119 | 132814 | 11224 | 59902 | 13301 | -36267 | -13224 |
| 20160126 | 125451 | -7363 | 50874 | -9028 | -32798 | 3469 |
| 20160202 | 122056 | -3395 | 41630 | -9244 | -26168 | 6630 |
New Zealand dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 24587 | 530 | 856 | -837 | -146 | 75 |
| 20160105 | 24928 | 341 | 64 | -792 | 1579 | 1725 |
| 20160112 | 25434 | 506 | 320 | 256 | 1541 | -38 |
| 20160119 | 28114 | 2680 | 6003 | 5683 | -2954 | -4495 |
| 20160126 | 30437 | 2323 | 8331 | 2328 | -5400 | -2446 |
| 20160202 | 30979 | 542 | 10539 | 2208 | -8436 | -3036 |
Mexican peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151229 | 139756 | 1902 | 61596 | 919 | -57387 | -668 |
| 20160105 | 143374 | 3618 | 66269 | 4673 | -61988 | -4601 |
| 20160112 | 148683 | 5309 | 78856 | 12587 | -74015 | -12027 |
| 20160119 | 171971 | 23288 | 80363 | 1507 | -76003 | -1988 |
| 20160126 | 167763 | -4208 | 81087 | 724 | -76607 | -604 |
| 20160202 | 166295 | -1468 | 83364 | 2277 | -78594 | -1987 |
*COT Report: The weekly Commitment of Traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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