Currency Speculators Continued To Trim USD Positions For 4th Week
Zachary Storella | Aug 29, 2016 02:03AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to decrease their US dollar bullish bets for a fourth consecutive week last week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$6.34 billion as of Tuesday August 23rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters.
This was a weekly change of -$3.47 billion from the +$9.81 billion total long position that was registered on August 16th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The aggregate US dollar speculative position has declined to its lowest level since July 5th when positions totaled +$4.18 billion contracts and the overall position remains under the +$10 billion level for a second consecutive week.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the Mexican peso (+17,182 weekly change in contracts), euro (+15,850 contracts), Japanese yen (+4,310 contracts), Canadian dollar (+4,261 contracts), Swiss franc (+3,430 contracts) and the Australian dollar (+1,644 contracts).
The currencies on the downside of speculative bets last week versus the dollar were just the British pound sterling (-740 weekly change in contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-183 contracts).
Notable changes:
Euro and Japanese yen speculative positions have gained for four straight weeks while Australian dollar positions have risen for three weeks
British pound positions dipped last week and continued to fall for the eighth straight week
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Swiss franc positions rebounded last week and net positions rose back into a small overall net long position against the dollar
Canadian dollar bets rebounded last week after falling for three straight weeks
New Zealand dollar positions edged slightly lower for a third week in a row and remain in a small overall net short position
This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 23rd and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts below.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
British Pound Sterling:
Japanese Yen:
Swiss Franc:
Canadian Dollar:
Australian Dollar:
New Zealand Dollar:
Mexican Peso:
*COT Report:The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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