Currency Speculators Continue To Cut U.S. Dollar Bets
Zachary Storella | Apr 24, 2016 02:51AM ET
Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
US dollar net speculator positions declined last week to -$1.85 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their exposure in the US dollar last week for a seventh straight week and now have an overall bearish position for the first time since 2014.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling -$1.85 billion as of Tuesday April 19th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.25 billion from the $0.40 billion total long position that was registered on April 12th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last week’s data brings the US dollar speculative level to its first overall short position since May 6th of 2014 when net positions stood at -$2.03 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the the Mexican peso (+32,182 change in weekly contracts), Australian dollar (+8,984 contracts) and the Japanese yen (+5,680 change). The Australian dollar and Japanese yen positions have now gained for five straight weeks and both continue to be, respectively, at multiyear highs. The Mexican peso positions rebounded from a decline the previous week and have now gained three out of the last four weeks.
Canadian dollar positions (+4,923 contracts) improved for the twelfth straight week and have established an overall net bullish position for the third straight week.
Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning gains were the euro (+5,134 contracts), Swiss franc (+1,172 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (+1,059 contracts).
The only currency whose speculative net positions declined last week was the British pound sterling (-3,842 change in weekly contracts) which declined for a fifth consecutive week.
Get The News You Want
This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | 87813 | -2186 | -77555 | -5648 |
| 20160322 | 73024 | -14789 | -66053 | 11502 |
| 20160329 | 67351 | -5673 | -63811 | 2242 |
| 20160405 | 59737 | -7614 | -53487 | 10324 |
| 20160412 | 55803 | -3934 | -52051 | 1436 |
| 20160419 | 51940 | -3863 | -46917 | 5134 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | 38929 | -33753 | -13619 | 35386 |
| 20160322 | 59790 | 20861 | -37723 | -24104 |
| 20160329 | 60506 | 716 | -40028 | -2305 |
| 20160405 | 70900 | 10394 | -46506 | -6478 |
| 20160412 | 74181 | 3281 | -51310 | -4804 |
| 20160419 | 71019 | -3162 | -55152 | -3842 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | -46976 | 18334 | 45489 | -18844 |
| 20160322 | -57511 | -10535 | 53346 | 7857 |
| 20160329 | -59963 | -2452 | 54387 | 1041 |
| 20160405 | -69057 | -9094 | 60073 | 5686 |
| 20160412 | -70758 | -1701 | 66190 | 6117 |
| 20160419 | -76829 | -6071 | 71870 | 5680 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | 6816 | -6704 | 5262 | 5391 |
| 20160322 | 5021 | -1795 | 4186 | -1076 |
| 20160329 | 3151 | -1870 | 4647 | 461 |
| 20160405 | -2077 | -5228 | 5649 | 1002 |
| 20160412 | -8137 | -6060 | 8238 | 2589 |
| 20160419 | -10027 | -1890 | 9410 | 1172 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | 17153 | -10067 | -16826 | 8955 |
| 20160322 | 9659 | -7494 | -15009 | 1817 |
| 20160329 | 3659 | -6000 | -6180 | 8829 |
| 20160405 | -6488 | -10147 | 97 | 6277 |
| 20160412 | -10102 | -3614 | 2385 | 2288 |
| 20160419 | -18065 | -7963 | 7308 | 4923 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | -22868 | 10491 | 12782 | -16413 |
| 20160322 | -31481 | -8613 | 18030 | 5248 |
| 20160329 | -35765 | -4284 | 23466 | 5436 |
| 20160405 | -37235 | -1470 | 26845 | 3379 |
| 20160412 | -45114 | -7879 | 35122 | 8277 |
| 20160419 | -53551 | -8437 | 44106 | 8984 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | 285 | -1940 | 1290 | 3290 |
| 20160322 | -1453 | -1738 | 1017 | -273 |
| 20160329 | -1657 | -204 | 1874 | 857 |
| 20160405 | -2793 | -1136 | 2903 | 1029 |
| 20160412 | -3974 | -1181 | 4292 | 1389 |
| 20160419 | -5959 | -1985 | 5351 | 1059 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160315 | 46985 | -13704 | -45037 | 12517 |
| 20160322 | 45991 | -994 | -45696 | -659 |
| 20160329 | 41861 | -4130 | -40796 | 4900 |
| 20160405 | 33303 | -8558 | -31878 | 8918 |
| 20160412 | 47092 | 13789 | -46591 | -14713 |
| 20160419 | 13463 | -33629 | -14409 | 32182 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
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