Currency Speculators Boosted US Dollar Bullish Bets Last Week
Zachary Storella | Mar 29, 2015 01:24AM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators renewed their push higher in net bullish positions for the US dollar last week after a sharp decrease the week prior.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $43.91 billion as of Tuesday March 24th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$5.32 billion from the $38.59 billion total long position that was registered on March 17th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The latest data brings the US dollar speculative level back over the $40 billion level and to its highest standing in two weeks. The previous week’s level had broken a streak of 11 straight weeks above the $40 billion level and saw bullish positions fall to the lowest level since December 16th 2014.
Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts
In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts rose last week to a total of +412,370 contracts as of Tuesday March 24th. This was a weekly change of +16,217 contracts from the total of +396,153 contracts as of Tuesday March 17th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: USD back at bullish position versus all currencies
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling and the Swiss franc.
Notable Changes:
- The euro bets continued their sharp decline as bearish euro positions fell beyond the -220,000 mark last week
- Swiss franc positions turned back to bearish after turning bullish for the first time since June 2014 on March 17th
- Japanese yen bets are now at the least bearish level since November 2012
- New Zealand dollar positions improved slightly for a 2nd week and are close to neutral against the dollar (-866 contracts)
This latest COT data is through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 438411 | 47175 | 232757 | -185582 | 9059 |
| 02/24/2015 | 431217 | 45511 | 223247 | -177736 | 7846 |
| 03/03/2015 | 440733 | 48467 | 220856 | -172389 | 5347 |
| 03/10/2015 | 496465 | 61271 | 242344 | -181073 | -8684 |
| 03/17/2015 | 449508 | 56329 | 250103 | -193774 | -12701 |
| 03/24/2015 | 460950 | 50148 | 271111 | -220963 | -27189 |
British pound sterling
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 170627 | 42999 | 71797 | -28798 | 9805 |
| 02/24/2015 | 169784 | 46741 | 68611 | -21870 | 6928 |
| 03/03/2015 | 165737 | 44563 | 71471 | -26908 | -5038 |
| 03/10/2015 | 205166 | 48053 | 80644 | -32591 | -5683 |
| 03/17/2015 | 188238 | 47155 | 85006 | -37851 | -5260 |
| 03/24/2015 | 178140 | 35938 | 74495 | -38557 | -706 |
Japanese yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 203555 | 31269 | 80360 | -49091 | 6033 |
| 02/24/2015 | 202438 | 31611 | 79123 | -47512 | 1579 |
| 03/03/2015 | 210611 | 33944 | 86465 | -52521 | -5009 |
| 03/10/2015 | 235089 | 32898 | 92285 | -59387 | -6866 |
| 03/17/2015 | 195913 | 44496 | 92550 | -48054 | 11333 |
| 03/24/2015 | 181026 | 39156 | 85061 | -45905 | 2149 |
Swiss franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 34204 | 4740 | 10784 | -6044 | -558 |
| 02/24/2015 | 34765 | 5228 | 10313 | -5085 | 959 |
| 03/03/2015 | 40861 | 7027 | 13089 | -6062 | -977 |
| 03/10/2015 | 52384 | 7217 | 15597 | -8380 | -2318 |
| 03/17/2015 | 38889 | 18129 | 15894 | 2235 | 10615 |
| 03/24/2015 | 36296 | 12604 | 16559 | -3955 | -6190 |
Canadian dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 111614 | 19998 | 52840 | -32842 | 491 |
| 02/24/2015 | 118014 | 22423 | 58668 | -36245 | -3403 |
| 03/03/2015 | 121344 | 24332 | 63195 | -38863 | -2618 |
| 03/10/2015 | 146639 | 22011 | 61041 | -39030 | -167 |
| 03/17/2015 | 158576 | 21001 | 53823 | -32822 | 6208 |
| 03/24/2015 | 106731 | 19193 | 51849 | -32656 | 166 |
Australian dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 131722 | 17230 | 71061 | -53831 | -649 |
| 02/24/2015 | 139805 | 15597 | 78751 | -63154 | -9323 |
| 03/03/2015 | 136841 | 13652 | 75197 | -61545 | 1609 |
| 03/10/2015 | 196534 | 15137 | 91988 | -76851 | -15306 |
| 03/17/2015 | 152746 | 63046 | 91853 | -28807 | 48044 |
| 03/24/2015 | 135693 | 52079 | 80447 | -28368 | 439 |
New Zealand dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 27700 | 10021 | 15774 | -5753 | 447 |
| 02/24/2015 | 27328 | 11107 | 15437 | -4330 | 1423 |
| 03/03/2015 | 27610 | 14597 | 15964 | -1367 | 2963 |
| 03/10/2015 | 29726 | 13347 | 15827 | -2480 | -1113 |
| 03/17/2015 | 23317 | 13117 | 14258 | -1141 | 1339 |
| 03/24/2015 | 20958 | 12149 | 13015 | -866 | 275 |
Mexican peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/17/2015 | 175704 | 28873 | 74318 | -45445 | 3790 |
| 02/24/2015 | 180506 | 34105 | 82449 | -48344 | -2899 |
| 03/03/2015 | 178057 | 31414 | 74821 | -43407 | 4937 |
| 03/10/2015 | 185039 | 30622 | 66269 | -35647 | 7760 |
| 03/17/2015 | 135144 | 23702 | 79641 | -55939 | -20292 |
| 03/24/2015 | 150320 | 35044 | 76144 | -41100 | 14839 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
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