Crude To $60: Que 2008?
Christopher Lemieux | Nov 26, 2014 12:51PM ET
I have this theory that the beginning of 2014 is deja vu of 2008. We have global disinflation, with deflationary threats in the EZ. This has propped up the dollar, causing commodity prices (particularly PMs and oil) to tank. Housing as dropped off from its peak, and inflation expectations reach lower limits not seen since 2008.
In 2007, leading into 2008, the general beat on Wall Street was that equities wouldn't decline. "So bullish it hurts," as I seen on one CNBC segment. Don't worry, it'll hurt a lot less.
We are not likely to see OPEC cut production because they do not what to lose market share. A lot still remains unknown, but crude looks to be trading like 2008.
From 2008's top, a descending trend line is currently acting as support. A trade will be entered on a confirmation close only. If prices bounce, $80/bbl is likely on a retracement.
However, a close below the trend support, we are likely to see $60/bbl in the coming months. Fundamentally, it makes sense.
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