Crude Oil: Rallied Although U.S. Crude Inventories Are At A Record Highs

 | Mar 05, 2015 04:47AM ET

The EUR/USD hit a fresh eleven-year low on yesterday session ahead of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy statement which will reveal the details of its Quantitative Easing (QE) program that will begin this month. The European Central Bank also preparing to disclose the economic estimates for the Euro Zone.

Today on the economic calendar we have from European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision that is expected to stay unchanged at 0.05% and the monetary policy statement. From the US we will have the Initial Jobless Claims in February that is estimated to fall from 313K to 295K and the Continuing Jobless Claims is February is also expected to drop from 2.401M to 2.400M indicating a strong labor market.

EUR/USD fell during yesterday session hitting 1.1061 a fresh eleven-year low, breaking below daily support at 1.1097 that should now act as a resistance. The pair closed near the low of the day on with an impulsive candle. Stochastic in showing an oversold market but even with the pair well into oversold territory, we should not fight the strong downward trend.

Expecting downward move to 1.078 on a break below previous day low at 1.1061 (scenario 1) or a break above the daily support at 1.1236 could push the pair back up to a daily resistance at 1.1459.