Could U.S. Interest Rates Have Peaked? Here's What the 10-Year Is Signaling

 | Mar 15, 2023 08:34AM ET

US interest rates have been on a roller coaster lately, but there’s a case for considering the possibility that yields have peaked. The wild card is the Federal Reserve, of course. The critical question: Will the Fed’s policy decisions over the next several months conflict or align with emerging signs that rates look set to more or less hold steady, if not decline, from current levels?

From a technical perspective, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield continues to trade in a range. The latest runup peaked at 4.08% on March 2, slightly below the previous top in October. The failure of the market to break out to new highs implies that we’ve seen the highs for this cycle.