Could Crude Oil Reach $60?
Antonio Ferlito | May 23, 2023 04:46AM ET
The decline in the price of the commodity continues, with oil reaching as low as $71 in this 4-week period.
A bearish trend due to concerns about the growth in demand for petroleum products.
Over the past week, physical market pressures on crude oil prices have trended negatively, with low refining margins in some areas and low demand.
The world's two largest economies also contributed to the uncertainty: unemployment claims rose in the US, while China saw its economic recovery slow.
The signals we’re getting seem to point to a still uncertain global economic recovery, with the price of oil serving as an indicator.
The two countries, USA and China, can substantially impact the international market, together with the movements of OPEC.
The economic situation in the US is not optimal, and China's recovery is disappointing me.
This casts severe doubts on energy demand.
It looks like things will get worse and worse as the recession progresses.
Therefore, the announcement of further supply reductions by OPEC+, does not seem to bring much impetus to prices.
It should be noted, in this regard, that no other cuts are foreseen.
There are various reasons for the decline in oil prices, with the US and China leading the change.
However, recent Chinese macro data demoralize me, and I fear that the much-heralded Chinese recovery, resulting in higher demand for oil, will not come.
The dollar is starting to rally in the US, heading for its most significant weekly increase since February.
This is due to uncertainty over the US debt ceiling and monetary policies pushing investors into safe-haven assets such as gold and the dollar.
When the dollar is more robust against other currencies, people who don't own it have to spend more to buy oil.
The economic crisis is causing a flight to the dollar and pessimism about oil demand due to a lack of confidence.
The United States, the world's largest oil consumer, raises concerns about a possible entry into a recession.
The postponement of talks on the national debt ceiling and the climate of growing concern about the impact that the crisis is having on regional banks does not help.
On Friday, US Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said interest rates should be raised further if inflation remains high.
This month's data showed that the pressure on prices has not eased, so an adjustment is needed.
From the technical analysis, the short trend is clear: prices are below the short-term moving average.
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I forecast that the oil price should hit $63 in the coming quarters.
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