Conference Board LEI: April Rebound Suggests Continuing Expansion
Doug Short | May 19, 2013 01:48AM ET
The press release :
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "After a slight decline in March, the U.S. LEI rebounded in April, led by housing permits and the interest rate spread. Labor market conditions also contributed, although consumers' outlook on the economy remains weak. In general, the LEI points to a continuing economic expansion with some upside potential. Meanwhile, the CEI, a measure of current conditions, has returned to a slow growth path, despite declining industrial production in April."
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "The index is 3.5 percent higher (annualized) than six months ago, suggesting expansion. However, the biggest risk right now is the adverse impact of cuts in federal spending. The biggest positive factor is the potential for improvement in the recovering housing and labor markets. The biggest unknown is the resiliency in confidence, both consumer and business."
For a better understanding of the relationship between the LEI and recessions, the next chart shows the percentage off the previous peak for the index and the number of months between the previous peak and official recessions.
Here is a look at the rate of change, which gives a closer look at behavior of the index in relation to recessions.
And finally, here is the same snapshot, zoomed in to the data since 2000.
Check back next month for an updated analysis.
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