Conference Board Leading Economic Index: A Slight Rise in May
Doug Short | Jun 21, 2013 02:18AM ET
The June press release :
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "Despite month-to-month volatility, the LEI's six-month growth rate remains steady, suggesting that conditions in the economy remain resilient. Widespread gains in the leading indicators over the last six months suggest there is some upside potential for economic activity in the second half of the year."
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "Growth will depend on continued improvement in the housing market and an easing of consumer and business caution which would allow overall consumption and investment to gain traction. Cutbacks in public spending programs and the drag from foreign trade remain headwinds."
For a better understanding of the relationship between the LEI and recessions, the next chart shows the percentage off the previous peak for the index and the number of months between the previous peak and official recessions.
Here is a look at the rate of change, which gives a closer look at behavior of the index in relation to recessions.
And finally, here is the same snapshot, zoomed in to the data since 2000.
Check back next month for an updated analysis.
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