MrTopStep | Jan 06, 2017 02:04AM ET
This year’s U.S. presidential election brought into focus one market you don’t hear about often: the Chinese yuan, or renminbi.
“Donald Trump has been telling us all for a long time now that China is a currency manipulator. It’s part of his plan for his first 100 days in office to get on with making sure that China is legally declared to be such a currency manipulator and thus start the process of doing something about it.
“The problem with this is that China really is a currency manipulator. But they’re manipulating the value of the yuan up, not down. Thus returning it to the correct free market value isn’t going to have the desired effect of closing America’s trade deficit with China.” (Forbes, Nov. 13.)
However things shake out with China under the new White House administration, let’s look closer at the basic premise of this argument — namely, that China’s government manipulates the currency.
By definition, market manipulation means stopping the free-market forces from doing what they do best: setting a fair value of an asset that suits both the buyer and the seller. It also implies that the manipulated market is no longer predictable using trend indicators you would apply to other, freely-traded assets.
So, does this mean that the yuan has been unpredictable?
You be the judge.
Below, you see a chart of the yuan vs. U.S. dollar exchange rate going back to 2014.
The arrows on this chart show you the timing of 15 yuan forecasts subscribers saw over the past two years in our Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday Asian-Pacific Short Term Update, edited by Chris Carolan.
So, what should we make of this brief history?
It’s best summarized by this quote from Chris Carolan’s Asian-Pacific Short Term Update:
“The [dollar/yuan] rate is pegged by the Chinese government, though it is subject to market pressures.
“…markets are bigger than governments.”
Original post
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.