Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Was Slower In March
Doug Short | Apr 23, 2013 12:33AM ET
According to the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, March economic activity slowed from February, now at -0.23, down from February's upwardly revised 0.76 (previously 0.44). This index has been negative (meaning below-trend growth) for ten of the past thirteen months. Here are the opening paragraphs from the report:
Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to -0.23 in March from +0.76 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from February, and only one of the four categories made a positive contribution to the index in March.
The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.01 in March from +0.12 in February. March's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was very near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index moved down to -0.02 in March from +0.13 in February. Twenty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 57 made negative contributions. Fifteen indicators improved from February to March, while 70 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, six made negative contributions. [Understanding the CFNAI Components , which I update and post a few hours after the CFNAI is released.
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