Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Increased In November
Doug Short | Dec 22, 2012 01:33AM ET
According to the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, November economic activity increased from the previous month, now at 0.10. However, this indicator has been negative (meaning below-trend growth) for seven of the past nine months, and the all-important 3-month moving average has been negative for all nine of those months and 22 of the last 28 months. Here are the opening paragraphs from the report:
Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.10 in November from –0.64 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, but only the production and income category made a positive contribution to the index in November.
The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased from –0.59 in October to –0.20 in November—its ninth consecutive reading below zero. November's CFNAI-MA3 sug- gests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index also moved up in November, increasing to –0.15 from –0.31 in October. Thirty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 46 made negative contributions. Forty-four indicators improved from October to November, while 41 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions. [Download PDF News Release]
Elsewhere in the PDF report is a key mention of the positive effect from Sandy recovery.
The Chicago Fed's Understanding the CFNAI Components , which I update and post a few hours after the CFNAI is released.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.