The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise incrementally to +0.20 in today’s update for May, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The projection is virtually unchanged from the previously released +0.19 reading for April, which reflected above-average economic growth relative to the historical trend. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate for May, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth, and at a moderately above-trend pace.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:
VAR-4A: A “vars” package.
VAR-4B: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
