The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline slightly to -0.26 in the March update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (April 21), according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. In the previous release for February, the three-month average was -0.18, a reading that equates with relatively weak economic growth. Only values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimate for March, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at a level that’s historically associated with growth, but at a moderately below-trend pace.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:
VAR-4A: A “vars” package.
VAR-4B: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
