7 Charts I'm Watching Right Now
Steve Saville | May 18, 2016 12:23AM ET
Here are a few of the charts that currently have my attention:h3 1) The Canadian Dollar/h3
The CAD usually trends with commodity prices, so the owners of commodity-related investments should view the CAD’s recent performance as a warning shot.
The huge rebound in this index from its January low is a little strange given the evidence that the trucking industry is in a recession , and that it's a long way from complete.
This gold relative to industrial metals ratio is a boom-bust indicator and an indicator of financial crises. In January of this year it got almost as high as its 2009 peak (its all-time high) and remains close to its peak, so its current message is that an economic bust is in progress and/or that a financial crisis is unfolding.
I think that gold will weaken relative to industrial metals such as copper for at least 12 months after the stock market reaches a major bottom, but in the meantime a new all-time high for the gold/GYX ratio is a realistic possibility.
This chart reflects a 20% envelope around the 50-day moving average. Although I think that the current situation has a lot more in common with the first half of 2001 than the first half of 2002, the way the Gold BUGS Index (HUI) has clung to the top of its MA envelope over the past few months looks very similar to what it did during the first half of 2002.
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Over the course of this year to date, the performance of the HUI/SPX ratio—the gold-mining sector relative to the broad US stock market—has been similar to its performance from November 2000 through to May 2001.
The SPX is standing at the precipice. The probability of a crash within the next two months is almost zero, but a tradable decline looks likely.
(the broad US stock market relative to the Treasury Bond).
Notice the difference between performance of the broad US stock market relative to the 30-Year Treasury bond following the 2014 peak and performance following the major peaks of 1999-2000 and 2007.
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