4 Charts Show Big Moves Underway For USD, Emerging Market And Asian FX
Callum Thomas | Aug 16, 2018 12:27AM ET
Well it's a mouthful of a title, but sometimes you just have to say exactly what's in the post and today we're looking at 4 charts-in-one... and they are about as topical as it gets. The charts come from our weekly Global Cross Asset Market Monitor : the top left is the US dollar index, the top right is an equal weighted emerging market currency index (25 currencies vs USD), the bottom left is an equal weighted index of 10 Asian currencies vs the USD, and the bottom right of course is the renminbi against the US dollar (USDCNY).
Bottom line: there is a big move underway across global foreign exchange markets right now, and it's quite likely there's more to come.
What's driving this, aside from a few idiosyncratic issues (e.g. Turkey - which I believe is simply a symptom of a wider issue), is monetary policy divergence, a subtle de-synchronization of global growth, and a softening macro picture in China. Fed tightening (rate hikes and QT) is a key catalyst, and the trade war just adds fuel to the fire.
I've talked previously about how Fed tightening and a stronger dollar are going to put USDCNY going through what could be a critical test (aka nail in the coffin) for the low volatility environment, and as I write this, the USDCNY is trading just over 6.933, so this test may come sooner than you expect...
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