Casey's Marin Katusa: Conflict Could Be Good For Energy Investors

Conflict in the Middle East has Europe scrambling to find reliable energy sources closer to home. This means investors should consider watching for a big shale discovery in a friendly location. Marin Katusa, energy expert with Casey Research, is constantly looking for the next big thing. In this interview with The Energy Report, Katusa profiles natural gas and uranium companies that could offer stable supply in a time of crisis.

The Energy Report: Energy investing is a truly global venture. What does the possibility of military action in Syria mean for energy investors?

Marin Katusa: Though Syria is not a major producer of oil, the impact of war can reach far beyond its borders. Conflict in the Middle East almost always results in higher oil prices for the rest of the world.

TER: Matt Badiali, editor of the S&A Resource Report, has said that Libya's collapse could have a material impact on oil prices because it is a large oil producer. Do prices go up more based on actual supply disruptions or investors reacting to headlines?

MK: Prices go up for both reasons. Matt is a smart guy and a friend, and he is right about Libya. Prices are based on both actual supply and psychological factors. War results in a speculation premium, but the reality is that conflict is never good for oil production. Therefore, less production occurs, which results in higher oil prices.

TER: You recently published a primer on the history between Iran and Iraq, based on Shiite rule in both countries. How do those shifts impact oil prices in Europe and the U.S.?

MK: It impacts Europe more than the U.S. Even though the Shiites are a minority in the Middle East, there is a significant risk of a spillover effect in the Middle East, in areas like eastern Saudi Arabia. The Europeans, unfortunately, depend more on Middle Eastern oil than North America, which has developed its own natural resources. Europeans, as a result, pay more than twice as much for gas, and up to three times as much for electricity. What's the European backup plan? Russian oil and natural gas.

In the U.S., oil and gas companies have been successful in exploiting unconventional resources, and with the success of the heavy oil from Canada, the U.S. refineries are not as dependent on oil from the Middle East compared to the Europeans.

TER: Does that mean that there are going to be more opportunities in non-Middle East oil?

MK: There will be more opportunities for U.S. oil in fields that aren't developed yet, but the North American producers are not cheap anymore. To have a big score, investors in the resource sector want to target areas that are undeveloped. The big gains are in developing these massive resources. North America is not the only place with shale oil and gas. The key is taking positions in companies that are going to experience the large growth and development of these shale fields before consolidation by bigger companies.

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TER: What about unconventional shale oil exploration? You've mentioned your early entry in 2007 into the shale gas sector with Cuadrilla Resources Ltd., an exploration and production company in the U.K. Is it too late to get involved in big opportunities like that?

MK: No, it's the opposite. Cuadrilla was one of the first companies to complete a shale gas well in the U.K. Cuadrilla is a perfect example of a company that no one had heard about when we recommended it. Today, the company is trading 25x north of when we first recommended it. That success is just scratching the surface of the potential of Europe. Europe is about 10–15 years behind North America on shale development, and yet its shale formations look more promising than some of the shale formations in North America. The geology is promising, the infrastructure is already there, there is plenty of local demand and premium pricing—there are still a lot of opportunities in Europe.

TER: There have been issues with shale oil: decline rates, bottlenecked oversupplies and write-downs. How do you hedge against those sorts of risks?

MK: Bottlenecks and declines matter a lot for producers. The companies with the biggest gains from the Bakken, Marcellus shale and Eagle Ford got in early because they had an idea and proved up the concept. Those companies got bought out by bigger companies. By the time there are infrastructure bottlenecks due to production, a project has turned into a multi-well program with hundreds of wells drilled. That's a big company problem.

That's an issue in the Bakken because it's been so successful. There is not enough pipeline to move the oil to the refineries, so they've been moving it with rail oil tankers. The industry is very entrepreneurial, and it's solved its own problems.

Before the bottleneck issues, you have to prove up the concept and then you're going to get the major companies that want exposure to these world-class shale formations. Cuadrilla is a case study of what is going to start happening in Europe with shale exploration.

TER: Each shale is different. The geology is different. The type of gas or oil coming out is different. How easily the product can be transported makes a difference in the price. What's the most important of those factors?

MK: Most important for an investor is to differentiate between gas shales and oil shales. Then determine the costs to drill. Let's take for example, the most recent results from the Chinese shale wells, which were not as promising as the Chinese hoped. They are gas shales north of 7,000 meters (7,000 m) deep. They also contain sour gas. These wells cost north of $15 million ($15M) to drill, complete and frack, and China lacks the infrastructure that the U.S. benefited from. Investors need to understand the end product. Is it dry gas? It is liquid rich? Are you in the oil formation? Are you in the vapor zone? No two shales are the same. Even in the U.S., some are naturally severely fractured, some are deep, some are oil rich and others are dry-gas rich.

You have to understand what you are investing in, what type of commodity you're looking for, the costs and how that company is going to fund itself, because shale exploration is expensive exploration. Investors should be cautious of companies promoting moose pasture as resource-rich shale. Investors beware—homework required.

The European economy will not be able to get its act together and be competitive with Asia and North America until it lowers its energy costs. When you're paying two to three times more for electricity and three to four times more for natural gas than your U.S. competitors, your ability to compete on a global stage is extremely compromised. Certain parts of Europe have excellent infrastructure—stay away from other parts where there is no infrastructure. Oil wells were drilled in Europe and producing before wells were drilled and producing in North America. The key is applying modern technologies that have worked in North America to old, but proven, fields that have never experienced any modern technology.

TER: Do those resources have to compete with Russia?

MK: These resources will become an alternative to Russian energy sources. Many European countries are more dependent on Russian fuel sources today than they were 20 years ago. The U.K.'s North Sea production is not what it used to be because of declining production and an increased government tax rate.

I find it ironic that European protestors are against the development of their own natural resources, yet at the same time are trying to protest Vladimir Putin's energy agendas. Europe's lack of developed resources is exactly what keeps the continent dependent on Russian natural resources.

TER: What about North America? Are you as optimistic about the opportunities there?

MK: Definitely. Mexico has become a major importer of U.S. natural gas. Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), the national oil company in Mexico, has seen a significant decrease in production because it has spent its profits funding social programs rather than reinvesting them into the oil and gas fields. Now it needs to import from the U.S. In the next five years, Mexico could open up to foreign companies. It's going to be something we're watching very closely. It's definitely something investors will want to keep on their radar as the Eagle Ford extends into Mexico.

In North America, and Canada specifically, a hot story is companies profiting from West Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG). The oil sands are a very exciting story, as is further development of the shale fields in North America. But you're not going to get the big upside in North America because developing and producing these shale formations after they've been discovered is no longer in the cards for a small company. It's just too capital intensive. The biggest upside for a small company is getting the real estate before anyone else recognizes it and attracting the majors' large pocketbooks to develop those fields. Junior companies can't develop oil sands. It's too expensive. LNG is a big-company game. And you're not going to get a 10 bagger with these big oil companies.

TER: What about oil services?

MK: It's the same story. We've had a great run recently with Halliburton Co. (HAL), Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW) and Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW). They will benefit from the development of these North American shale fields. We were surprised how well Halliburton did because it's the world's second-largest service company, but you're not going to get the multibagger potential out of these companies. They will pay decent yields, nothing extravagant.

TER: You and Rick Rule have talked a lot about the inevitability of a uranium renaissance, but prices have actually come down since the beginning of the year. In May, you moderated a webinar that pointed to increased demand and decreased supply due to a shift in leadership in Japan on the demand side and the end of the Russian program pumping converted nuclear fuel into the market on the supply side. Are you still predicting price increases for uranium?

MK: I'm very bullish. Since our webinar, of the Top 3 companies that we presented, one is up 65% in this market and another had a 100% gain. That said, we are starting to see more companies announce lower production and delayed production due to the low prices of uranium. The cure for low prices is low prices, and we are starting to see that.

There is still hesitation in the market because of the tragedy at Fukushima and radiation that continues to leak into the water. Japan has had to slow down bringing nuclear reactors back online.

What has really changed long term? Nothing. The trends driving the market are still in place. Growth in China will continue. Investors should be invested in either the highest-grade deposits, which are in the Athabasca Basin in Canada, or the lowest-cost producers, such as the ones that have in situ recovery (ISR) production in the U.S.

If you focus on ISR in the U.S., you want to be exposed to warmer ISR production. It's about 25–30% cheaper to produce with this method because they don't need to insulate the wells. Whenever you're moving water, you don't want to be around cold temperatures because freezing occurs.

Stay away from companies that have large debt loads they incurred before Fukushima; that is crippling to a company. The low-grade, conventional producers, such as Paladin Energy Ltd. (PDN; PDN:ASX), are suffering from low spot uranium prices and debt. We've always stayed away from companies like that. disclaimer .

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Written By: The Energy Report