Can The Consumer Save The Economy?
Michele Schneider | Jun 14, 2022 01:04AM ET
Last week I did a part educational, part actionable webinar for the virtual money show. My theme was and always is, the Economic Modern Family.
On the weekly charts, some of the members have broken down under their 200-week moving average, while others tested and held it and others have yet to trade near it.
Bitcoin is the newest member of the Family and it too held its 200-WMA support zone.
This gives us a technical picture that is pretty clear and full of actionable if-this/then-that type of trading scenarios.
What are the economic modern family saying ahead of PPI and the FOMC?
The weekly charts of the Russell 2000 IWM, Retail XRT, Biotech IBB, Semiconductors SMH, Regional Banks KRE, and Transportation IYT vary.
Then add the Bitcoin chart and you can see that the 200-WMA is either widely respected or decidedly rejected.
The most interesting chart just might be Bitcoin as it popped about $1000 off the 200-WMA while the Russell 2000 broke decidedly below it.
What could that mean?
Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto space keeps rising while the price liquidated on the heels of Celsius.
In the past, the rising dominance has pointed to a tradeable low in Bitcoin.
More importantly for right now, if BTC has any influence or can turn out as a reliable market indicator, it behooves us to watch that 200-WMA.
Can it continue to hold and if so, is that an overall sigh of relief for the stock market?
That is where we look to the rest of the Family. Interestingly, XRT is holding its 200-WMA.
Meanwhile, IYT or the demand side broke the 200-WMA. And KRE plus SMH are still a distance away-we can call it relative strength in banks and semis at this point.
Biotech has declined harder than any of the others. If it closes out the week above 105.39, perhaps that will be a good place to look for a bounce.
In the meanwhile, if we focus on XRT or the retail side of the economy, nobody can argue with the price weakness or abysmal consumer confidence statistic.
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However, that XRT is currently outpacing IWM could be something.
A lot will depend on the CPI and the FOMC. But for now, perhaps we can draw some parallel between Bitcoin and the consumer. And perhaps, we can continue some level of patience to see if both break the 200-WMA this week for more pain.
Or if they hold and point to a bear market rally-or another opportunity to trade the trading for some quick profits.
h2 ETF Summary/h2S&P 500 (SPY) 380 now pivotal resistance with 360 next support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 168.90 May low so will see if it can hold
Dow (DIA) 306.28 May low pivotal support at 294
NASDAQ (QQQ) 263 the 200-WMA with280.21 resistance
KRE (Regional Banks) 56 the 200 WMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 195 some minor support with 220 resistance
IYT (Transportation) 211.87 the 200-WMA to get back above
IBB (Biotechnology) 105.39 pivotal area
XRT (Retail) 60.62 the important 200-WMA support line
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