Cable Maintains Negative Tone; AUD/NZD Trends Higher
FinFX | Jul 23, 2014 04:22AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro has eventually broken below pivotal 1.3500/1.3475 support zone, where also main bull-trendline off 1.2042 lies and commenced fresh leg lower, new phase of corrective pullback from 1.3992, 08 May peak. Three day consolidation preceded fresh weakness, which is now focusing 1.3294, 07 November 2013 higher low, with psychological 1.34 support seen as interim hurdle. Fully established bears on all timeframes, could interrupted by corrective actions, as all studies are entering oversold territory. Previous strong supports now act as initial resistances, with lower top and former consolidation high at 1.3547, also 50% retracement of 1.3639/1.3463 descend, expected to cap stronger rallies.
Resistance: 1.3489; 1.3500; 1.3547; 1.3575
Support: 1.3463; 1.3400; 1.3350; 1.3294
EUR/JPY
The pair probes below 136.69, 18 July fresh low after recovery rally from 136.69 staled on
approach to 137.35/40 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 138.43/136.69 descend and 17 July lower tops. Subsequent weakness, which completed near-term recovery phase, attempts to continue descend for final push at pivotal support at 136.21, 04 Feb higher low, loss of which to signal resumption of larger downmove from 145.67, 27 Dec 2013 peak. Freshly established hourly bears are supportive for further descend, however, overextended 4-hour and daily studies may delay fresh bears. Initial barriers lay at 137.32/40, with potential extended rallies, expected to be limited under 138.43 lower top.
Resistance: 137.00; 137.32; 137.76; 138.00
Support: 136.45; 136.21; 136.00; 135.50
GBP/USD
Cable maintains negative near-term tone and consolidates descend off 1.7189 peak, which posted fresh low at 1.7034 on 18 July. Upside attempts stay so far limited at 1.71 barrier that keeps downmove off 1.7189 intact, for test of psychological 1.7000 support and deeper pullback, seen on sustained break lower. Near-term technicals are weak and support further downside., with extended consolidative action expected to precede fresh push lower. Alternative scenario requires, clear break above 1.71 handle to delay bears and confirm prolonged sideways movements.
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Resistance: 1.7081; 1.7100; 1.7115; 1.7148
Support: 1.7040; 1.7034; 1.7000; 1.6950
USD/JPY
The pair trades in near-term recovery phase off 101.05, with rally retracing over 61.8% of 101.78/101.05 descend, so far and seeing potential for attempt at the pivotal 101.78/85 barriers, break of which to confirm double bottom formation and open way for stronger recovery above 101.85 lower top / 55/200SMA death-cross and psychological 102 hurdle. Overbought conditions triggered corrective action, which was so far contained at 38.2% retracement of recovery rally from 101.05 and should exceed 101.32 higher low / 50%, to keep fresh near-term bulls in play. Otherwise, increased downside risk towards 101.18 higher low and 101 base, would be expected on violation of 101.32 support.
Resistance: 101.59; 101.78; 101.85; 102.00
Support: 101.32; 101.26; 101.18; 101.05
AUD/USD
The pair broke above initial 0.94 barrier and so far retraced 61.8% of 0.9503/0.9327 descend, on attempt at 0.9454, 10 July spike high, to complete consolidative phase and confirm strong support and base at 0.9320 and eventually attack key peak at 0.9503, 01 July high and the highest level of 2014. Break here to resume larger uptrend from 0.8658 low. Bullish near-term technicals support the advance, however, hesitation on approach to 0.9454 and previous high at 0.9460, could be seen on overbought hourly conditions.
Resistance: 0.9454; 0.9460; 0.9503; 0.9550
Support: 0.9420; 0.9400; 0.9378; 0.9358
AUD/NZD
The pair continues to trend higher and extends near-term corrective phase from 1.0619, where near-term base was formed. Sustained break above psychological 1.08 barrier and clearance of lower top at 1.0834, completed 1.0834/1.0619 bear-leg and opened way for further retracement of larger 1.1030/1.0619 descend, with fresh extension higher so far retracing 61.8%. Bullish near-term structure keeps the upside favored, with break above 200SMA at 1.0878, to open psychological 1.09 barrier and 1.0933, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement next. Corrective pullbacks should find good supports at 1.0820/00 zone, where dips should be ideally contained.
Resistance: 1.0878; 1.0900; 1.0933; 1.0950
Support: 1.0857; 1.0820; 1.0800; 1.0769
XAU/USD
Spot Gold lost traction, as pullback from 1324 peak returned to 1300 support zone. However, the support still holds, with near-term narrow-range consolidation under way. Near-term studies remain weak and maintain risk of break below 1300 handle, to signal an end of corrective phase and re-focus lower targets, where fresh low at 1292, posted on 15 July, offers immediate target and support, reinforced by daily 55SMA, ahead of 1286, 200SMA and 1280, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Only bounce through lower tops at 1315/18, would ease immediate downside pressure and shift near-term focus towards 1324 high.
Resistance: 1308; 1315; 1318; 1324
Support: 1304; 1301; 1295; 1292
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