British Pound Slide Continues On Brexit Nerves

 | Nov 12, 2018 01:23PM ET

GBP/USD has posted sharp losses in the Monday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.2865, down 0.85% since the Friday close. It’s a quiet start to the day, with no British events and one minor U.S. indicator. On Tuesday, the focus will be on British employment numbers, highlighted by employment change and wage growth.

The pound lost ground on Friday, courtesy of strong inflation numbers out of the United States. The Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.6% in October, its sharpest gain since January 2017. This easily beat the estimate of 0.2%. Core PPI was also sharp, with a gain of 0.5%, compared to a gain of 0.2%. Stronger inflation will reinforce expectations that the Fed will hike rates in December. Currently, the odds of a quarter-percent rate hike stands at 76%. On the consumer front, UoM consumer sentiment dropped to 98.3, down from 99.0 points. Still, this beat the forecast of 98.0 points.

The pound roared higher at the start of November, but has since given up much of those gains. The currency declined late last week, and the downward trend has continued on Monday. Investors are increasingly worried about a ‘hard Brexit’, as months of intense negotiations between British and European officials continue. Negotiators met on the weekend but failed to bridge the gap over the Irish border. The EU wants the UK to be temporarily tied in a customs union with the EU until an agreement over the border can be reached, but pro-Brexit MPs are dead set against being forced to remain in a customs union with Europe. On Monday, Prime Minister May canceled a cabinet meeting over Brexit, a sign that serious obstacles remain before an agreement can be signed. May wants the EU to hold a special Brexit summit this month, but this is looking unlikely unless there is a breakthrough in the talks.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Monday (November 12)

  • Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey
  • 14:30 US FOMC Member Mary Daly Speaks

Tuesday (November 13)

  • 4:30 British Average Earnings Index. Estimate 3.0%
  • 4:30 British Unemployment Rate. Estimate 4.0%
  • 4:30 British Claimant Count Change. Estimate 4.3K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Monday, November 12, 2018