Brave New Markets Part 1: Secular Cycles
Tim Knight | Jun 17, 2013 12:54AM ET
1. Secular Cycles on Equities
For those who aren’t familiar with them there are two types of overall market trend. The first is the primary or cyclical market, and these are bull or bear markets lasting between a few months to (more usually for primary bull markets) two to five years with a move in excess of 20%, and on this basis since 2009 we have seen a primary bull market from March 2009 to May 2011, a primary bear market from May to October 2011, and another primary bull market from October 2011.
These primary or cyclical markets fit within larger trends called secular bull and bear markets and it’s those I’m going to be looking at today. Definitions of these primary and secular trend periods are available at InvestmentTools.com for the blank long term charts adjusted for CPI that I have annotated (grey background).
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