BOC Decision, U.S. PMIs In Focus; Amazon's Acquisitions In Scrutiny
NAGA | Sep 06, 2022 10:13AM ET
Traders are getting ready for the opening of the US trading session for the first time this week. Investors are specifically interested in seeing the reaction of the US Stock market, which hasn't been traded since Friday.
In addition to the above, the market is preparing its accounts for major announcements scheduled for the next 48 hours, which we will look at throughout today’s market analysis.
h2 USD/CAD - Technical View/h2One of the main price drivers for the USD/CAD will likely be today’s US Services PMI and tomorrow’s rate announcement for Canada.
The asset's price has increased significantly over the past three weeks due to the reaffirmed position of the Federal Reserve.
The price movement had taken the exchange rate back to a previous resistance point. The price has since lost momentum and is showing a lack of direction.
This potentially may also result from traders waiting to confirm the US inflation figures scheduled for early next week. This is likely to be in the spotlight throughout the week.
However, the price is also likely to be influenced by tomorrow’s announcement by the Bank of Canada. The central bank will confirm its latest interest rate alongside this month’s Rate Statement.
The BOC is predicted to increase interest rates by 75 basis points. However, this is also the case for the Federal Reserve, meaning that traders will need to be cautious of the price movement, and technical analysis will play an essential role in the decision-making process.
Also, the US will announce the Services Purchasing Manager Index for August, which is predicted to decline to 55.4. Canada will release their latest employment figures at the end of the week.
It is predicted that the employment change will increase by 15,000 after a sharp decline of over 30,000 the previous month, but the unemployment rate may rise to 5.0% from 4.9%, according to experts.
Lastly, the oil price strongly declined throughout the day, piling further pressure on the asset. Oil and the USD/CAD are known to be inversely correlated.
h2 Amazon/h2Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) had been one of the hottest stocks on the market throughout 2017 up to mid-2021. However, the price has been one of the hardest hit over the past 12 months due to lower sales figures.
The stock has declined by almost 28% over 12 months, and this figure could have been much higher if June’s classic stock split had not supported the stock price. In the last five days, the price has declined by 1.67%.
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Prices are under pressure after reports that the US Federal Trade Commission has launched an audit regarding several takeover deals the company has performed.
The acquisition of iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT), which engaged in the production of robot vacuum cleaners, cost Amazon $1.7 Billion, and the regulator intends to investigate whether it violated antitrust laws.
According to experts, the FTC is evaluating whether the company is simply attempting to increase its market share in the retail sector.
Many experts believe that Amazon and similar companies may be one of the hardest hit by the Fed’s monetary policy, especially if the rate moves into the highly restrictive zone.
Investors are hoping that fiscal policy may be able to assist consumer confidence during this period. We are seeing something similar in the UK, with retail stocks climbing after the new government is predicted to increase fiscal stimulus.
Lastly, the investors will look at the overall stock market's performance and analyze the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. This also plays a more critical role as general investor confidence influences investors’ decisions across the market.
h2 Gold Outlook/h2When looking at technical analysis, we can consider two scenarios. Firstly the price is still moving within a bearish trend as “swing highs'' remain lower.
Simultaneously, we can consider that the price has formed a second price high over the past 48 hours. This is something that traders will be monitoring throughout the day.
On the other hand, indicators indicate that the price is within the neutral zone on smaller timeframes, but longer-term price movement points downwards.
This is also something that had been illustrated in the US Commodity Future Trading Committee’s reports which confirmed that investors mainly believed the commodity would decline.
A point of caution for short traders is the longer-term support level. The support level is mainly seen in the weekly timeframe and at $1,684.
Traders will be cautious that the price does not find longer-term support.
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