Crude Oil Prices In Focus
Bob Hoye | Feb 22, 2015 12:41AM ET
Commodities
Snippet from Pivotal Events February 19, 2015
Crude oil prices are still the main focus. Our target was for a potential low in December or January. Previous such crashes lasted for 6 to 7 months and January was number 7. The low was 43.58 at the end of January at the most oversold on the Weekly RSI in twenty years.
It has rallied to a trading range between 54 and 50. It is concerning that there has been three attempts to break above the 54 level.
Technically, the condition is opposite to that for the dollar. Very oversold and how does the market shed the condition? Through a big rally or a trading range? The chart above shows sentiment.
Historically, crude crashes have not ended with a "V" bottoms, but by months of attempts to stabilize. We will stay with this likelihood. Also historically, crude prices have been shifting to the "New Paradigm" whereby chronically weak commodities is one of the features of the Post-Bubble condition. The other force is the earlier example of natural gas prices finding a much lower trading
range.
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