Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to rise 223,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s August update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected gain is slightly higher than the previously reported increase for July.
The Capital Spectator’s median prediction is at the high end of a pair of consensus forecasts based on recent surveys of economists.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:
VAR-6: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package.
ES: An “forecast” package.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
