AUD/USD Hits 4.5 Month High on Strong Job Gains

 | Dec 15, 2023 12:12AM ET

  • Australian dollar powers higher
  • Australian job growth beats expectations
  • Fed’s Powell projects three rate cuts in 2024

    • The Australian dollar continues to head higher this week. In Thursday’s North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6702, up 0.65%. The Australian dollar is having a superb week and has gained 2%. Earlier today, the Aussie climbed as high as 0.6728, its highest level since July 31st.

    h2 Australian Employment Growth Crushes Expectations/h2

    Australia’s economy added 61,500 jobs in November, blowing past the market consensus of 11,500 and higher than the revised October gain of 42,700. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, above the market consensus of 3.8% and the highest level since May 2022.

    The strong gains in employment growth boosted the Australian dollar and indicated that the labour market remains resilient despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s steep rate hike cycle. The central bank has said that its rate path will be data-dependent and today’s strong data will provide support for the RBA to maintain a tightening bias. The RBA hasn’t suggested that rate cuts are coming, but the markets have priced in about 50 basis points in easing in 2024.

    h2 Fed Pivots and Jumps on Rate Cut Bandwagon/h2

    The Federal Reserve paused at Wednesday’s meeting, keeping the benchmark rate at a target range of 5.25%-5.50% for a third consecutive time. That move was widely expected but Fed Chair Powell surprised the markets with a very dovish performance. There had been expectations that Powell would push back against growing speculation that the Fed would trim rates in 2024. Instead, Powell essentially declared the end of the rate-tightening cycle and signaled that the Fed expected to cut rates three times next year.

    Powell’s dovish stance sent equities flying higher and the US dollar tumbling. Powell has repeatedly said that the door remained open to further rate hikes, warning that inflation was too high. Just two weeks ago, Powell said it would be “premature” to speculate about the timing of rate cuts and the shift in policy was dramatic. The Fed may have become more dovish, but there is still a deep disconnect between the markets and the Fed, as the markets have now priced in six rate cuts in 2024, compared to only three for the Federal Reserve.