AUD/USD: Corrects Higher After Yesterday's Fresh Weakness
FinFX | Sep 23, 2014 03:49AM ET
EUR/USD
The euro continues to gradually move lower, approaching initial targets at 1.2800, round figure support and more significant 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend and higher base of Mar/July 2013 at 1.2754/44. Overall picture remains bearish and sees further downside favored, with extension below 1.2744, expected to open 1.2660, Nov 2012 low, the last significant obstacle on the way towards 1.2042, low of 2012. Lower timeframes studies show negative tone prevailing on 4-hour chart and consolidation above 1.28 handle, marked by neutral hourly technicals. Consolidation high at 1.2866, offers initial resistance, reinforced by bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2978, along with 1.2877, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2978/1.2815 downleg. More significant barrier lies above 61.8% retracement at 1.2928 lower platform, clearance of which to expose 1.30 breakpoint. Overextended daily studies, with RSI / MACD bullish divergence developing, suggest corrective action in the near-term.
Res: 1.2866; 1.2877; 1.2900; 1.2928
Sup: 1.2815; 1.2800; 1.2786; 1.2754
EUR/JPY
The pair trades in near-term corrective phase off fresh high at 141.20, posted on 19 Sep, with 200SMA support at 139.75, being cracked. Pressure intensifies on consolidation floor at 139.60 zone, which marks the lowest level so far of the pullback from 141.20, as hourly structure is negative and 4-hour indicators heading south. This opens way towards 139.50, Fibonacci 61.8% of 138.45/141.20 ascend and 139.15, Fibonacci 38.2% of 135.80/141.20, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA and weekly cloud top. Dips should be ideally contained here, to prevent further easing and test of pivotal 138.45 higher base and 50% retracement, loss of which would bring bears back in play.
Res: 140.19; 140.39; 140.79; 141.00
Sup: 139.50; 139.15; 139.00; 138.45
GBP/USD
The pair moves higher and stabilizes above 1.63 level, after leaving higher low at 1.6284, 19 Sep corrective pullback’s low. With near-term studies gaining positive tone and price action being supported by bull-trendline, drawn off 1.6050 low, upside is seen favored in the near term. However, regain of 1.64 handle is seen as initial requirement to confirm bullish scenario. Initial supports lay at 1.6363/55, hourly Ichimoku cloud base / hourly Kijun-sen line, ahead of 1.6320/00, higher base / round-figure, while any violation of 1.6284 handle, would risk fresh bears, as extension of the pullback from 1.6522, 19 Sep peak.
Res: 1.6400; 1.6431; 1.6479; 1.6500
Sup: 1.6355; 1.6320; 1.6300; 1.6284
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USD/JPY
The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, under fresh high at 109.42, posted last week. Near-term risk of further hesitation ahead of short-term targets at psychological 110 and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak increases, as hourly structure is weakening and consolidation floor at 108.57, coming under pressure. The notion is supported by yesterday’s Inside Day candle, which suggests a pause ahead of 110.00/110.66 targets, with loss of initial 108.57 support, seen as signal. Fresh weakness could extend to 108/ 107.80, round-figure / Fibonacci 61.8% of 106.79/109.42 ascend, with strong support and breakpoint, laying at 107 zone.
Res: 109.00; 109.18; 109.42; 110.00
Sup: 108.57; 108.42; 108.00; 107.80
AUD/USD
The pair corrects higher after yesterday’s fresh weakness through 0.89 handle, reached new low at 0.8851, coming ticks away from initial target at 0.8846, Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the wave from 0.9110 / 05 Aug 2013 low. Overall negative structure keeps the downside in focus, with near-term targets at 0.88, then 0.8783, Fibonacci 76.4% expansion and 0.8682, 100% expansion, ahead of key short-term support at 0.8658, 24 Jan 2014 low. Corrective actions should be ideally capped under 0.90 barrier, while only break here would signal stronger corrective action and delay immediate bears.
Res: 0.8921; 0.8950; 0.8990; 0.9011
Sup: 0.8846; 0.8819; 0.8800; 0.8783
AUD/NZD
The pair continues to trend lower, after losing psychological 1.10 support and approaches 1.09 level, as yesterday’s fresh bears extended to 1.0914, cracking strong 1.0920 higher base and daily 100SMA. Daily cloud top so far contained descend, for consolidative action, ahead of fresh push lower, as overall bears keep focus at the downside. Clear break below 1.0920/00, to open 1.0876, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0619/1.1293 ascend and 200SMA at 1.0834, next. Initial barriers at 1.0977, yesterday’s high and 1.10, psychological / 50% of 1.1098/1.0914, should ideally cap rallies.
Res: 1.0977; 1.1000; 1.1022; 1.1038
Sup: 1.0914; 1.0900; 1.0876; 1.0834
XAU/USD
Spot Gold trades in consolidative phase after fresh weakness cracked 1209 support, Fibonacci 176.4% expansion of the third wave off 1322 lower top bottomed at 1208, so far. The price action, entrenched within 1208 and 1220 range, maintains neutral tone, signaled by yesterday’s Doji candle. Overall negative tone sees the downside targets in near-term focus, with extension below 1208, to open psychological 1200 support and 1194, 200% expansion. Conversely, lift above 1220 barrier, is expected to pause bears for further corrective action towards the next break point at 1228, lower platform / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1239/1208 downleg.
Res: 1220; 1228; 1231; 1239
Sup: 1214; 1208; 1200; 1194
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