AUD/USD: Bearish Trend Possible After Dismal Job Numbers
Mingze Wu | Nov 07, 2013 12:11AM ET
The latest Employment Data from Australia showed the number of unemployed growing by 1.1K in the month of October versus an expected 10.0K. This itself would be a bearish enough reason to send the AUD/USD scurrying lower, but the data beneath the headline figure is even more bearish.
Full Time employment numbers have fallen by 27.9K, one of the largest monthly drops we have seen in the past five years. The only reason the headline figure still appears positive was due to the Part Time Employment numbers which grew 28.9K. One saving grace was the Participation Rate which maintained at 64.8%, suggesting that the unemployed are still looking for jobs. But considering that expectations were for the participation rate to increase to 64.9%, and that the previous month's 64.8% was a result of a revision lower, this month's number is still considered mildly bearish.
Hourly Chart
Hence it is not surprising to see the AUD/USD falling close to 50 pips following the announcement. It is likely that there was additional bearish pressure from technical traders following the break of 0.952 support and rising the Channel Bottom. However, right now from a technical perspective, the possibility of a bullish pullback is high with prices unable to match the lows of 5th November, with Stochastic readings suggesting that the bearish momentum may be over for now as readings are pointing higher within the Oversold region.
Daily Chart
The Daily Chart is less bullish though, with prices heading towards the Channel Top following the rebound off 0.952. Stochastic readings are Oversold, but it seems that we have averted a bullish cycle signal, underlining the strong bearish bias that price is under currently.
Putting the Short- and Long-term charts together, the most bearish scenario would be to see price breaking the 0.942 which will trigger additional short-term bearish acceleration. On the daily chart, the push will result in a Tweezers Top bearish reversal pattern, while Stochastic readings will be able to move below 20.0 more resolutely, hence increasing bearish conviction in both S/T and L/T timeframe.
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