AUD/USD Pauses At Key .9145 Support

 | Jun 25, 2013 03:54AM ET

AUD/USD pauses at key .9145 support, but mounting risk for surrender this week to aim for .9000 and below
  • As expected, a low level consolidation (neutral outside Monday) to start the week after a push last week to hold just ahead of our long-held target at the critical 38.2% retrace of the entire 2008-11 rally at .9145.
  • Having pushed below the key 2011 low at .9388, to complete a long term top, we see threat below .9145 into July, through psychological .9000 to chart props .8900 & .8770 and maybe to the 50% retrace at .8545.
  • We favour further consolidation Tuesday, capped by the .9440/50 area, but with growing risk through midweek for a break below .9145..
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
  • Only above .9450 eases bear risk with a switch to neutral above .9665.